Will Your Favorite TV Series Survive? Betting on Renewals

Television networks announce their fall schedules each May, revealing which shows will return and which will get the axe. For fans, this annual tradition brings a mix of excitement and disappointment. While some fan-favorite series get renewed year after year, others meet their demise all too soon. With so many factors influencing renewal decisions, how can viewers predict if their favorite show will live or die?

Examining the Ratings

The most important factor networks consider is ratings. Each week, Nielsen tracks how many viewers watch each program and shares that data with networks. Shows earning strong ratings, meaning lots of people watch them live or shortly after airing, stand the best chance of sticking around. Perennial hits like NCIS or The Big Bang Theory can weather a small dip in viewership. But for a newer or fringe series already on the bubble, even a minor drop can spell doom.

Ratings provide insight into how popular a show is with audiences. However, they don’t tell the whole story. The 18-49 demographic holds the most weight with advertisers, so shows popular with younger viewers may get renewed over older-skewing programs. Online viewing also influences decisions, since not all viewers catch shows during the initial broadcast.

Assessing Production Costs

The other major factor is production costs. Creating television requires significant investments in talent, crew, locations, sets, props, and more. Reality competitions and multi-camera sitcoms cost relatively little and provide efficient programming to fill many timeslots. Dramas, especially those with elaborate special effects or shooting locations, carry much higher price tags.

Less expensive shows have a better shot at sticking around, even with mediocre ratings that would doom a big-budget series. The profitability and earning potential of a show also enters the equation. Critical acclaim and awards recognition can extend a show’s lifespan despite high costs.

Monitoring Social Media Chatter

Television executives also pay close attention to social media engagement. They want programs that get audiences talking and create buzz leading up to new episodes. Monitoring X conversations, Facebook activity and online forums provides insight into viewer passion and investment in characters and storylines.

A show with an enthusiastic social media following may get renewed over one with higher ratings but less visible superfans. After all, passionate fans drive ratings over time through word of mouth. They also purchase merchandise and provide other revenue streams.

Considering Syndication Potential

For scripted series, syndication prospects are another point in favor of renewal. Successful shows can earn huge profits through syndication deals that allow other networks or streaming services to air old episodes. But most deals require at least 88 episodes, meaning four 22-episode seasons. Getting a show close to that syndication threshold may persuade a network to keep it around an extra year or two despite so-so ratings.

Studying the Network’s Strategy

Programming decisions also align with broader network strategy. NBC found success with thoughtful dramas like This Is Us, while CBS leans into easy-to-digest procedurals. Outside forces like corporate ownership and deals with production companies also influence renewals. Established shows anchored by big stars may get preferential treatment.

Shows That Enjoyed a Last-Minute Reprieve

Here are a few examples of shows that were likely renewed due to strong social media engagement from fans:

• Community (NBC/Yahoo): The meta comedy from Dan Harmon earned low ratings on NBC but had an extremely vocal online fan community. Their advocacy helped earn 5 seasons on NBC and a sixth on Yahoo’s streaming service.
• Timeless (NBC): The time travel drama was initially cancelled after its first season but revived for a second season after fans took to social media demanding more. NBC cited “phenomenal fan support” as motivation for the reversal.
• Lucifer (Fox/Netflix): After Fox cancelled the fantasy procedural, fans passionately petitioned and dominated social media with #SaveLucifer. Netflix picked up the show, citing the “overwhelming fan desire” to see it continue.
• Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Fox/NBC): Vocal fans on X rallied after Fox cancelled the sitcom. NBC answered the call and revived the acclaimed comedy for multiple additional seasons.
• Sense8 (Netflix): Loyal fans convinced Netflix to order a finale episodeafter cancelling the sci-fi drama. The hashtag #RenewSense8 trended worldwide.

In general, low-rated genre shows with creative mythologies seem especially prone to mobilizing fans online when cancellation looms. Networks do tune in to these campaigns, and they can make the difference in borderline renewal decisions.

In the end, television executives try to balance many factors in deciding what stays and what goes. While fans have limited insight into the process, taking stock of ratings, costs, intangibles and corporate motivations offers some clues into a favorite show’s chances of survival.

Nothing is guaranteed, but for worried fans, educated guesses provide hope that their beloved series might just get renewed for another season.