Which City Will Win? How to Bet on the Most Livable (and Least) Cities in the World

Every year, headlines trumpet the release of global livability rankings, sparking civic pride in some cities and prompting soul-searching in others. Lists like the Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) Global Livability Index or Mercer’s Quality of Living City Ranking become fodder for debate, tourism campaigns, and even corporate relocation decisions. But beyond the immediate bragging rights, it’s also fun to bet on which cities will rise or fall.

What Makes a City “Livable”? The Ranking Criteria

Major rankings like the EIU’s index assess cities based on several key categories, typically weighted to create an overall score. These generally include:

• Stability (Weighting example: 25%): This measures the prevalence of crime (petty and violent), the threat of terror, military conflict, and civil unrest. Cities scoring highly here are safe and politically stable.
• Healthcare (Weighting example: 20%): Assesses the availability and quality of both private and public healthcare, access to hospitals and doctors, and the availability of over-the-counter medicines.
• Culture & Environment (Weighting example: 25%): A broad category covering climate, levels of corruption, social or religious restrictions, censorship, availability of sporting activities, cultural attractions (museums, concerts, restaurants), and consumer goods and services. Environmental quality, including green spaces and pollution levels, is also crucial.
• Education (Weighting example: 10%): Considers the availability and quality of private education, as well as indicators of public education quality.
• Infrastructure (Weighting example: 20%): Evaluates the quality of roads, public transport, international links (airports), energy provision, water supply, telecommunications, and the availability of good-quality housing.

Different ranking bodies might use slightly different criteria or weightings. Understanding these nuances is key to interpreting the results.

The Perennial Favorites: Why Some Cities Consistently Win

Certain cities consistently appear at the top of livability rankings. Vienna, Austria, has frequently held the top spot in the EIU index, including in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Other frequent high-performers include Copenhagen (Denmark), Zurich and Geneva (Switzerland), Vancouver and Calgary (Canada), and Melbourne and Sydney (Australia).

Why do these cities repeatedly “win”?

• Strong Fundamentals: They typically score highly across all categories. They boast excellent public services, robust healthcare systems, high-quality education, well-maintained infrastructure (especially public transport), and relative political stability.
• Investment in Quality of Life: Many top cities actively invest in green spaces, cultural institutions, and sustainable infrastructure. Vienna, for example, is noted for its abundant green spaces and efficient public transport.
• Stability and Safety: Low crime rates and political stability are hallmarks of top-ranked cities.
• Mid-Sized Advantage: Often, these are mid-sized cities in wealthier countries. They offer many amenities of larger hubs but potentially avoid some pitfalls like extreme congestion, higher crime rates, or strained infrastructure that can affect mega-cities like London or New York (which often rank lower).

Betting on these cities is like backing a reigning champion – their strong foundations make significant drops unlikely unless major unforeseen events occur. However, even top cities face challenges; recent rankings noted housing crises impacting infrastructure scores in cities like Melbourne, Sydney, and Toronto.

The Other End of the Spectrum: Understanding the Least Livable Cities

At the bottom of the rankings, we consistently find cities grappling with profound challenges. Damascus (Syria) has frequently been ranked the least livable city by the EIU due to the devastating impact of ongoing civil war. Other cities often appearing near the bottom include Tripoli (Libya), Algiers (Algeria), Lagos (Nigeria), Karachi (Pakistan), and Port Moresby (Papua New Guinea). Kyiv (Ukraine) has also ranked low due to the ongoing war.

Common factors contributing to low scores include:

Conflict and Instability: War, civil unrest, and high crime rates severely impact the Stability score, often the most heavily weighted category.

• Inadequate Healthcare
• Poor Infrastructure
• Economic Hardship
• Environmental Issues

Betting on these cities involves recognizing the deep-seated structural issues that hinder progress. Improvement often requires long-term peace, significant investment, and fundamental political and economic reforms. Unfortunately, many cities at the bottom see little change in their scores year-on-year.

How to Bet on Future Rankings

Predicting shifts in livability rankings requires analyzing leading indicators and potential catalysts for change. Here’s how to make more informed bets:

Keep an eye on political developments, elections, social tensions, crime statistics, and geopolitical risks. Increased protests (as seen recently in Western Europe impacting some cities’ stability scores) or conflicts (like the Israel-Hamas war affecting Tel Aviv’s rank) are major red flags. Conversely, peace agreements or successful crackdowns on crime can signal improvement.

Major infrastructure projects – new metro lines, airport expansions (like Zurich’s recent enhancements), high-speed internet rollouts, large-scale housing developments – can significantly boost infrastructure scores over time. Conversely, neglect or crises (like housing shortages) can cause declines.

Government Healthcare and Education initiatives to improve access to or quality of healthcare and education can lead to score increases, particularly in developing nations where gains can be substantial. Recent improvements in GCC countries (UAE, Saudi Arabia) were noted in the 2024 EIU report.

Cities investing heavily in green spaces, pollution control, renewable energy, and climate resilience may see improvements in the Culture & Environment category.

While not always directly measured (cost of living is often separate), economic prosperity can fund improvements in other areas. However, rapid growth can also strain infrastructure and increase inequality. Economic downturns can negatively impact stability and services.

Events like pandemics demonstrated how quickly livability perceptions could change, initially favoring less dense cities or those with effective public health responses. Climate change impacts (heatwaves, floods) are increasingly relevant.

Dark Horses and Potential Movers: Where Might Shifts Occur?

Cities Recovering from Conflict/Instability

Cities emerging from periods of turmoil have the potential for significant gains if peace holds and reconstruction begins, although progress is often slow.

Rapidly Developing Cities

Urban centers in fast-growing economies (particularly in Asia or the Middle East) might see rapid infrastructure and service improvements, leading to climbs in the rankings (e.g., recent gains in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh). Budapest also showed significant improvement in the 2024 index.

Cities Investing Strategically

Cities making targeted investments in specific areas like sustainability, technology, or culture might become “dark horses.”

Cities Facing New Pressures

Conversely, cities facing emerging challenges like severe water shortages, unmanaged migration, rising social inequality, or political polarization could see their rankings decline, even if they were previously stable. Housing affordability issues are currently pressuring scores in some top-tier Canadian and Australian cities. Increased protests have slightly lowered stability scores in some Western European cities.

By analyzing the factors that drive these scores, we can better understand the challenges and opportunities facing cities worldwide.