What Wins Best Picture? Breaking Down 20 Years of Oscar Trends

The Academy Award for Best Picture: it’s the most coveted prize in cinema, the golden statuette that can define careers and etch a film into Hollywood history. For film enthusiasts and savvy bettors alike, understanding the patterns and predilections of the Academy can be both a fascinating study and a potential route to a rewarding wager. As we delve into two decades of Best Picture winners (from the 2005 ceremony to the 2024 awards), certain trends emerge, offering clues as to what truly captures Oscar’s heart.

The “Oscar Bait” Evolution

The term “Oscar bait” often conjures images of sweeping historical epics, tear-jerking dramas, or biopics of tortured geniuses, strategically released in the autumn. While elements of this hold true, the last 20 years show a more nuanced picture. Indeed, dramas have dominated, with films like Million Dollar Baby (2005), Crash (2006), The Departed (2007), The King’s Speech (2011), 12 Years a Slave (2014), Moonlight (2017), and Oppenheimer (2024) all fitting broadly into this category.

However, the Academy has also shown an increasing willingness to embrace a wider range of stories and styles, including a silent film homage (The Artist, 2012), a dark comedy (Birdman, 2015), a fantasy romance (The Shape of Water, 2018), a South Korean thriller (Parasite, 2020), a heartfelt family dramedy (CODA, 2022), and an inventive multiverse action-comedy (Everything Everywhere All at Once, 2023). This suggests that while traditional “bait” still swims, the waters are becoming more diverse.

Genre Spotlight

Unsurprisingly, drama remains the Academy’s favoured genre. Looking at the winners from the 77th (2005) to the 96th (2024) Academy Awards, a significant majority are dramas or have strong dramatic elements. This includes historical dramas (The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Oppenheimer), crime dramas (The Departed, No Country for Old Men), and social issue dramas (Crash, Spotlight, Moonlight, Nomadland).

However, the definition of a Best Picture winner has expanded. The Artist was a black-and-white silent film, a romantic comedy-drama. Birdman was a satirical black comedy-drama. The Shape of Water blended fantasy, romance, and drama. Parasite was a darkly comic thriller. CODA, a coming-of-age comedy-drama, and Everything Everywhere All at Once, a science fiction action-comedy, further underscore this broadening of horizons.

Critical Acclaim

High critical acclaim is virtually a prerequisite for a Best Picture contender, and almost certainly for a winner. Tools like Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic offer a quantifiable glimpse into this.

While an exceptionally high score doesn’t guarantee a win (many critically lauded films lose out), a film with lukewarm or mixed critical reception is highly unlikely to take home the top prize. Bettors should pay close attention to films consistently earning widespread critical praise throughout awards season. Sometimes, the critics’ darling doesn’t align with the Academy’s ultimate choice. However, a strong critical standing is a fundamental starting point.

Globes, BAFTAs, and Guilds

The journey to Oscar night is paved with other awards ceremonies, each offering clues. Key precursors include:

• Golden Globes:With separate awards for Drama and Musical/Comedy, the Globes cast a wider net. Historically, a Globe win was a strong indicator, but its predictive power for Best Picture can fluctuate.
• BAFTA Awards:The British Academy Film Awards are an increasingly influential precursor. In the last 20 years, there’s been significant overlap.
• Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards:The PGA is arguably one of the strongest predictors. Their choice for Best Theatrical Motion Picture has often aligned with the eventual Best Picture Oscar winner.
• Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards:The DGA winner for Outstanding Directorial Achievement is a very strong indicator for the Best Director Oscar, and often, the film directed by the DGA winner takes Best Picture.
• Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards:The award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture is the SAG equivalent of Best Picture. Its predictive power has grown, with recent winners like Parasite, CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Oppenheimer all winning the SAG Ensemble award before taking Best Picture at the Oscars.

A film that consistently wins across these key precursors, particularly the PGA and SAG awards, significantly strengthens its Oscar odds.

Timing is Everything

Historically, the “fall festival” season (September-October) followed by a limited theatrical run in November/December has been the prime launching pad for Best Picture hopefuls. This allows films to build buzz through festivals like Venice, Telluride, and Toronto, and then gain momentum with critics’ groups and early awards, culminating in a wider release as Oscar voting approaches.

Looking at the last 20 winners, a significant number had US release dates in the final quarter of the year. Examples include Million Dollar Baby (December), Slumdog Millionaire (November), and 12 Years a Slave (October). While the fall release is still potent, strong films can emerge from other windows, especially with evolving release strategies and Academy demographics.

Themes That Conquer

Certain thematic elements frequently resonate with Academy voters. Over the past two decades, these have included:

• Social Justice and Underdog Stories:Films tackling societal issues, racial injustice, and the triumph of the underdog have performed well (e.g., Crash, Slumdog Millionaire, 12 Years a Slave, Spotlight, Moonlight, Green Book, Parasite, CODA).
• Historical Significance and Biopics:Stories rooted in real events or figures often attract Oscar attention (e.g., The King’s Speech, Argo, 12 Years a Slave, Spotlight, Green Book, Oppenheimer).
• The Power of the Human Spirit:Narratives showcasing resilience, personal struggle, and redemption are perennial favourites (e.g., Million Dollar Baby, The Hurt Locker, Nomadland).
• Show Business Itself:Films about filmmaking, acting, or the arts have a special allure for an industry awarding itself (e.g., The Artist, Birdman).

While not a rigid formula, films that tap into these broader themes, offering both emotional depth and a sense of importance, often find favour.

Betting on Glory

Predicting the Best Picture winner is an art, not a science. However, by analyzing these trends over the past 20 years, informed bettors can identify strong contenders. Look for critically acclaimed dramas (though be open to inspired genre-benders) with strong precursor wins (especially PGA and SAG), a strategic release date, and themes that resonate with a sense of social relevance or profound human experience. The Academy is evolving, but its core preferences often shine through, year after year.