Oscars Underdogs: Sleeper Contenders to Watch in 2026

While more titles are yet to emerge, understanding the DNA of a potential Oscar underdog can turn any cinephile into a savvy predictor.

This isn’t about gazing into a crystal ball, but rather about recognising patterns, understanding the nuances of Academy preferences, and keeping a keen eye on the indicators that often signal a film’s ascent from obscurity to Oscar buzz.

Defining the “Underdog” in an Oscar Context

What exactly is an Oscar underdog? It’s not always about the smallest budget, though that can be a factor. Often, these are films that might lack the initial marketing muscle of studio behemoths but compensate with powerful storytelling, breakout performances, or innovative filmmaking. They might come from independent production houses, be foreign-language films that capture global attention, or even genre pictures that transcend expectations. Think of past surprises like “Moonlight,” “Parasite,” or “CODA” – films that weren’t the presumed frontrunners early on but gained unstoppable momentum. These films often rely on critical acclaim and word-of-mouth to build their profile.

The Anatomy of an Oscar Underdog: Key Traits

Several characteristics can flag a film as a potential sleeper contender:

• Compelling and unique narratives
• Breakout performances
• Visionary direction
• Critical acclaim is crucial
• Strong festival showings

Hunting Grounds: Where to Spot Emerging Contenders

The journey to an Oscar nomination often begins long before the film reaches a wide audience.

Film Festivals as Launchpads

The “Big Five” festivals – Venice, Telluride, Toronto (TIFF), and New York (NYFF) – along with Sundance in January and Cannes in May, are critical launching pads. Winning major awards at these festivals (like the Palme d’Or at Cannes, the Golden Lion at Venice, or the People’s Choice Award at TIFF) can create significant buzz. Even films that don’t win top prizes but generate strong positive reviews and industry chatter can emerge as contenders. For some categories, like Best Documentary Feature, winning qualifying awards at specific festivals is a prerequisite for eligibility.

The Power of Precursors

Keep an eye on the “precursor” awards. These include the Critics’ Group Awards, the Guild Awards, the Golden Globes, and the BAFTAs.

Key Categories and Their Underdog Potential

While Best Picture is the ultimate prize, several categories are particularly receptive to underdog narratives:

• Best Picture: The Academy’s use of a preferential ballot for Best Picture can sometimes favour films that are broadly liked, rather than passionately loved by a smaller faction, opening the door for consensus-building underdogs. Recent years have shown a trend towards smaller, more independent films taking the top prize.
• Best Director: This category can recognise visionary filmmakers working outside the mainstream studio system.
• Writing (Original and Adapted Screenplay): Often a haven for unique voices, sharp wit, and innovative storytelling from independent cinema.
• Acting Categories (Lead and Supporting): Breakout performances in smaller films are frequently recognised, proving that a powerful portrayal can transcend a film’s budget.
• Best International Feature Film: This category, by its nature, celebrates films from around the world that might be considered underdogs in the U.S. market.
• Best Documentary Feature: Frequently highlights impactful, lesser-known stories and independent filmmaking.
• Best Animated Feature: While often dominated by major studios, there’s increasing space for independent and international animated films to gain recognition.

Decoding Academy Preferences (Even for Underdogs)

The Academy, comprised of thousands of film professionals, has evolving tastes, but some general tendencies persist:

• Themes of Significance: Films that explore social issues, historical events, the human spirit, or offer profound emotional experiences often resonate.
• Craftsmanship: Exceptional skill in areas like cinematography, editing, score, production design, and costume design is always valued, even in lower-budget productions.
• The “Narrative”: Sometimes, a compelling story behind the film or filmmaker – a comeback, a debut, a long-overdue recognition – can capture voters’ imaginations.
• Diversity and Inclusion: Following initiatives like #OscarsSoWhite, there’s a growing (though still evolving) emphasis on recognising diverse voices and stories.

Summer 2025 Releases: Early Whispers?

Traditionally, summer is blockbuster season, with Oscar contenders typically emerging in the fall and winter. However, this isn’t a hard and fast rule. Critically acclaimed films released in the summer can sometimes maintain momentum. For example, “Oppenheimer,” a major 2023 summer release, went on to dominate the 2024 Oscars.

As we look to summer 2025, it’s too early for definitive predictions. However, cinephiles should watch for:

• Auteur-driven films: Projects from respected directors, even if they have a broader appeal, could garner critical attention.
• Critically acclaimed genre films: A smart, well-crafted thriller, sci-fi, or even horror film that receives rave reviews might make an impact beyond the box office.
• Dramas with strong performances: Even amidst summer spectacle, a character-driven drama with standout acting can begin to build an awards narrative.
• Festival Holdovers: Films that premiered at early 2025 festivals like Sundance or Berlin and are slated for a summer release might already have some critical backing.

Some notable films slated for a wider release in summer 2025 that could generate discussion (though it’s highly speculative at this stage) include “Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning” (May 23) and Pixar’s “Elio” (June 20). Wes Anderson’s “The Phoenician Theory,” playing in competition at Cannes 2025 and set for a May 30 release, is already being flagged as an “Oscar-buzzy title.” Of course, many true contenders will only emerge as the year progresses, and the festival season kicks off.

The Long Road: From Sleeper to Contender

Identifying a potential underdog is just the first step. The journey to an Oscar nomination involves a carefully orchestrated campaign.

• Astute Distribution and Marketing: Companies like A24 have become masters at building buzz for independent films through targeted marketing and strategic release patterns.
• Sustained Buzz: The film needs to stay in the conversation, fuelled by ongoing critical discussion, audience reactions, and media attention.
• Navigating the Awards Circuit: Successful campaigns involve Q&A sessions with talent, targeted screenings for guild members and Academy voters, and consistent engagement throughout the lengthy awards season.

The Thrill of the Chase

Predicting Oscar underdogs is an art, not a science. It requires a blend of critical analysis, an understanding of industry dynamics, and a dash of intuition. While the major studios will undoubtedly field their big guns for 2026, the real excitement often lies in discovering those unexpected gems that rise through the ranks, proving that powerful storytelling and cinematic excellence can emerge from any corner of the film world. As 2025 unfolds, keep your eyes on the festival circuit, listen to the critics, and you might just spot the next sleeper hit poised for Oscar gold.