Oscar Nominations 2026 Preview: Early Frontrunners, Festival Darlings, and Surprise Contenders

If you think the Oscar race begins when the nominations are announced in January, you’re already months behind the curve. The campaign for Hollywood’s most coveted prize is a year-long marathon that truly kicks off as the summer heat gives way to the cool air of autumn. This is when the film festivals in Venice, Telluride, and Toronto become the proving grounds for the year’s most ambitious movies. It’s on this circuit that the initial battle lines are drawn. You have the heavyweight frontrunners from established masters, the indie darlings that steal critics’ hearts, and the surprise contenders that seemingly come out of nowhere. Getting a handle on these early dynamics is the key to understanding the race ahead.

The Heavyweight Frontrunners

Every Oscar season has its titans, i.e., films that arrive with immense expectations thanks to their A-list directors, powerhouse casts, and grand cinematic scale. For 2026, you can practically pencil in a few of these from the get-go. All eyes are on Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, a sprawling historical epic starring Leonardo DiCaprio. A director of Anderson’s caliber teaming up with a star of DiCaprio’s stature is the kind of combination that makes Academy voters pay immediate attention. This isn’t just a movie; it’s an event, and its early screenings have reportedly left industry insiders floored. It has the weight, the scope, and the pedigree of a classic Best Picture frontrunner.

In this same category, you have to place Ryan Coogler’s intense new thriller, Sinners. Following his massive commercial success, Coogler is a director the industry deeply respects, and this film is being described as his most mature and artistically ambitious work to date. These heavyweight contenders don’t always need the festival circuit to launch their campaigns. Their power comes from their sheer presence and the institutional respect they command. You should expect them to be a major part of the conversation from now until the final ballot is cast.

The Festival Darlings Stealing Hearts

While the heavyweights command respect, the festival darlings command passion. These are the films that may not have the biggest budgets or the most famous faces but generate incredible word-of-mouth with emotionally resonant stories and bold filmmaking. This year, no film has exemplified this better than Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet. After its premiere, it became the must-see movie at both Telluride and Toronto, culminating in a win for the prestigious People’s Choice Award at TIFF – an award that has an uncanny track record of predicting Best Picture nominees. It’s a gut-punch of a film that connects with audiences on a deeply personal level, and that emotional connection is what builds a successful awards campaign.

Of course, the festival circuit can also be a brutal filter. Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt, starring Julia Roberts, entered the season with high hopes but was met with a polite, if muted, response. It shows that even with a respected director and a major star, a film has to truly connect to become a “darling.” You should keep a close watch on the films that critics are championing and that audiences are responding to with standing ovations. That organic groundswell of support is often more powerful than the biggest marketing budget.

The Surprise Contenders to Watch

Where is the fun in only tracking the favorites? The most exciting part of any Oscar race is the emergence of surprise contenders who shake up the established order. These can come in many forms. Sometimes it’s a transformative performance in a smaller film, like the chatter building around Jeremy Allen White as Bruce Springsteen in the biopic Deliver Me From Nowhere. It’s a role that could allow him to break through in a major way, turning the Best Actor race on its head.

You also have to look beyond Hollywood. International films have become increasingly powerful forces at the Oscars, and South Korea’s submission of Park Chan-wook’s masterful No Other Choice could be a contender not just for Best International Feature, but for major categories like Best Director and even Best Picture. Then there are the genre films that are simply too well-crafted to ignore. A sci-fi film with stunning visuals or a horror movie with a brilliant script can sometimes break through the Academy’s traditional biases. These are the contenders you won’t see coming, and they make the race infinitely more interesting.

So, the board is set. You have your titans, your critical darlings, and your potential spoilers all jockeying for position. The next few months will be a whirlwind of critics’ awards, guild nominations, and endless speculation that will clarify who has the momentum to go the distance. Nothing is set in stone, and a film that seems like a longshot today could be a frontrunner by January. The race has just begun, and watching these different campaigns unfold is half the excitement.