How to Bet on the World Music Awards: Global Sales Leaders, Fan Trophies & Region Power Plays

As we settle into December 2025, the music industry is catching its breath after a year defined by colossal stadium tours and viral streaming juggernauts. While the Grammys rely on a voting committee and the AMAs lean on popular vote, the World Music Awards (WMA) remain the gambler’s favorite for one distinct reason: they are cold, hard math.

The WMAs are determined by sales figures and global popularity, provided by the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI). For a bettor, this changes the game entirely. You aren’t trying to read the minds of an academy; you are auditing the books. With the ceremony on the horizon, smart money is already moving based on the data we have from the last 11 months.

The Mathematics of Winning

Unlike subjective awards, the WMA “Best Selling” categories are essentially solved equations if you have access to the right charts. The “Diamond Award” and “World’s Best Selling Artist” trophies are not about who had the best narrative, but who moved the most units.

In 2025, the conversation starts and ends with Taylor Swift. After topping the IFPI Global Artist Chart back in March for a record-extending fifth time, her momentum with The Tortured Poets Department has barely waned. The album’s physical sales have provided a floor that streaming-only artists struggle to match. If you are looking at the “World’s Best Selling Artist” odds, Swift is the safe, low-yield bond of the music betting world. The value, however, lies in the sub-categories where the margins are tighter.

The Streaming vs. Physical Split

The most contentious battleground for 2025 is “World’s Best Selling Single.” Here, the betting strategy must account for the weighted formula of streams versus paid downloads.

Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’ collaboration, “Die With A Smile,” has been a statistical monster, racking up over 15 million points on the United World Chart by mid-year. It dominated streaming platforms and airplay for months. However, do not overlook the “Best Selling Album” category, where physical sales carry immense weight. This is where the Western streaming giants often lose ground to the East.

The K-Pop Factor: A Regional Power Play

If you are ignoring the physical sales data coming out of Asia, you are throwing money away. The K-Pop model, which emphasizes collectible physical albums, creates a massive skew in the WMA calculations.

Take RIIZE, for example. Their studio album Odyssey debuted with nearly 1.4 million sales units in a single week back in June. While Western artists rely on Spotify streams, groups like RIIZE, SEVENTEEN, and the 2025 MAMA Award winners Aespa are moving physical units in numbers that Western labels envy. When betting on “World’s Best Selling Group” or “Best Selling Album,” the smart money often drifts toward the Hanteo and Circle chart leaders rather than the Billboard 200 favorites. The arbitrage opportunity here is spotting which bookmakers are overvaluing US streaming numbers while undervaluing Asian physical exports.

The Fan Army Wildcard

While most WMA categories are sales-based, the “World’s Best Fanbase” and similar fan-voted side categories are pure volatility. These are not about passive listening; they are about active mobilization.

We saw a preview of this at the MAMA Awards in late November, where Enhypen and IVE took home major fan-choice trophies. The mobilization of these fanbases is highly organized. If you see a betting market for a fan-voted category, look for the groups with the most active online infrastructure. It is rarely about the music’s broad appeal and entirely about the fan club’s ability to organize voting drives. In 2025, betting against a K-Pop fanbase in a voting category is a quick way to lose your stake.

Scouting the Breakout Stars

Finally, keep an eye on the “World’s Best Selling New Artist” category. This is often where the data lags behind the hype, creating favorable odds.

Alex Warren is the name to watch here. His track “Ordinary” didn’t just perform well; it topped global charts across Europe and the Antipodes, showing the kind of broad, multi-territory support that the WMA algorithm favors. While US-centric bookies might favor a domestic country breakout star, the WMA rewards international reach. An artist topping charts in Germany, Australia, and the UK simultaneously often accumulates more “points” than someone dominating only the US market.

Think Like an Accountant

Betting on the World Music Awards requires you to think less like a music critic and more like an accountant. Ignore the reviews and the headlines. Instead, look at the cumulative points on the United World Chart, respect the purchasing power of the K-Pop physical market, and never underestimate the sheer volume of Taylor Swift’s global footprint. The data is out there; you just have to trust it.