How to Bet on the Seoul Music Awards: Daesang Chances, Fan Votes & Performance Collabs

The landscape of K-pop wagering shifts fast, and as we sit here in December 2025, the roadmap for the 35th Seoul Music Awards (SMA) is already being drawn. Following the 34th ceremony’s pivot to a mid-year schedule last June, we are currently deep in the eligibility period for the next show, expected in mid-2026.

While the ceremony itself is months away, the data driving the odds is accumulating right now. The recent results from the Korea Grand Music Awards (KGMA) and MAMA have set the stage, but the SMA has its own distinct flavor, heavily favoring physical sales and specific voting apps. For bettors, this “quiet” period between the year-end rush and the mid-year show is the time to identify value before the general public catches on.

Assessing the Daesang Heavyweights

The Grand Prize (Daesang) is where the bulk of the money lands. Historically, the SMA splits this honor or awards a single winner based on a mix of 60% sales/streaming and 40% judge evaluation. Right now, Stray Kids look like the safest anchor for any betting slip. Their performance throughout late 2025, specifically securing major wins at the KGMA in November, proves their physical sales dominance is untouched.

However, value hunters should look at the digital side. Aespa has been a streaming monster on Melon since their Q2 comeback. If the SMA decides to award separate Daesangs for Album and Digital Song, a format they have used previously, a split ticket betting on Stray Kids (Album) and Aespa (Digital) covers the most ground. Also, keep an eye on G-Dragon. His return to the scene in late 2025 has been massive, and award shows often love to validate legacy acts with “Record of the Year” style Daesangs.

The Fan Vote Factor

You cannot bet on the SMA without respecting the “fandom tax.” Unlike the Grammys, where voting is closed to the public, the SMA explicitly monetizes fan participation. The “Popularity Award” is 100% determined by votes, and the “K-Wave Special Award” is purely international voting.

Smart money follows the mobilization, not just the music. Download the “K-POP SEOUL” or “My One Pick” apps just to monitor the traffic. In 2025, we’ve seen rookie groups like KiiiKiii mobilize international fanbases that rival established acts. If you see a fandom organizing massive fundraising drives on X to buy voting tickets, that group becomes a lock for the popularity categories. The odds usually don’t reflect this intensity until the voting window actually opens, so identifying organized fanbases now offers an edge.

Reading the Performance Lineups

One of the strongest indicators for a win isn’t on a chart, it is in the show schedule. K-pop agencies rarely send their top talent to perform 10-minute medleys unless they are guaranteed to leave with a trophy. This is often called the “attendance award” phenomenon, but for bettors, it is a reliable signal.

When rumors start flying in April or May 2026 about who is attending, pay attention. If a group like TXT or NewJeans is announced for a “Special Stage,” their odds for a Bonsang (Main Prize) effectively hit 100%. If two groups are rumored for a collaboration stage, both are likely locking in hardware. Betting markets often react slowly to these announcements, providing a brief window to place wagers on “To Win Any Award” props.

The Circle Chart Reality Check

While judges have sway, the SMA is fundamentally a numbers game based on the Circle Chart. You need to look at the cumulative data from April 2025 through today. The metric to watch is not peak position, but total index points.

A song that debuted at #1 but fell off the chart in two weeks is often less valuable in the SMA scoring system than a song like IVE’s latest track, which might have peaked at #3 but stayed in the Top 10 for four months. Consistency builds the cumulative score that the SMA algorithm prioritizes. Check the year-end Circle summaries; the top 10 artists on that list are your safest bets for the Bonsang winners.

Rookie of the Year Volatility

The “Rookie of the Year” category is often the hardest to predict because the data set is smaller. However, late-2025 debuts have a recency bias advantage. Groups that debuted in November or December 2025 are fresh in the judges’ minds. Look for rookies who have secured a brand ambassadorship quickly. In the K-pop industry, a luxury brand deal within six months of debut is a strong proxy for industry support, which often correlates with the judges’ score component of the Rookie award.

Watching Current Trends

The 35th Seoul Music Awards might seem distant, but the winners are being decided by the streams and sales happening today. By tracking the Circle Chart accumulation, monitoring the voting app ecosystems, and keeping an ear to the ground for performance rumors, you can build a strong betting portfolio. The key is to separate the noise of viral moments from the hard data of physical sales and sustained fandom power. As we head toward 2026, the smartest bets are placed by those watching the trends right now.