How to Bet on the ‘Posthumous Nominee’ Effect Across Award Shows

In the glittering world of entertainment awards, a posthumous nomination casts a long, poignant shadow. It’s a moment that blends celebration with sorrow, honoring a final, brilliant performance from an artist no longer with us. For bettors, this unique and emotionally charged scenario presents a compelling question: does a posthumous nomination create a “sympathy vote” powerful enough to guarantee a win? The answer, as history shows, is far from simple, making the ‘posthumous nominee’ a fascinating, albeit risky, proposition in the world of awards betting.

The Myth of the Inevitable Win: A Look at the Numbers

The most prominent stage for this phenomenon is the Academy Awards. As of early 2025, there have been 64 posthumous nominations in competitive categories, resulting in 29 wins. This win rate of approximately 45% immediately dispels the myth that a posthumous nod is a sure thing. While the emotional narrative is powerful, it doesn’t always translate into a golden statuette.

The Emmy Awards present a similar picture. While there have been numerous posthumous nominations throughout its history, actual wins for deceased performers are relatively rare. For instance, in 1995, Raul Julia won for the TV movie The Burning Season, but other highly favored posthumous nominees, like Kathryn Joosten for Desperate Housewives in 2012, have lost out. This suggests that while sentiment might get a nominee onto the ballot, crossing the finish line requires more than just goodwill.

Across other major awards, the pattern is inconsistent. The Golden Globes have honored posthumous nominees like Heath Ledger and Chadwick Boseman. The Grammys have seen posthumous wins for artists like Ray Charles and John Prine, with Jimmy Carter even winning a posthumous Grammy in 2025 for a spoken word album. The Tony Awards have also had posthumous winners, such as Jonathan Larson for the musical Rent. However, in each of these cases, the win was not a foregone conclusion, but rather the result of a complex interplay of factors.

Analyzing the Key Factors for Bettors

For those looking to place a wager on a posthumous nominee, a nuanced analysis beyond the emotional narrative is crucial. Several key factors can help determine the likelihood of a win:

The Strength of the Performance and the Film

This remains the most critical factor. Heath Ledger’s transformative and iconic performance as the Joker in The Dark Knight was a cinematic event in its own right. His win was not solely based on sentiment; the performance was widely hailed as one of the greatest of its time. Betting odds for Ledger reflected this, with bookmakers making him a strong favorite. Similarly, Peter Finch’s win for Network was for a powerful and memorable role that defined his career.

The Competition

The strength of the other nominees in the category is a major hurdle. The most telling recent example is the 2021 Academy Awards. Chadwick Boseman was the odds-on favorite to win Best Actor for his powerhouse performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, having already secured a Golden Globe and a Screen Actors Guild award. However, he lost to Anthony Hopkins for his role in The Father. This stunning upset serves as a stark reminder that even with immense goodwill and a critically acclaimed performance, a strong competitor can still triumph. Voters may have simply felt Hopkins’ portrayal of a man battling dementia was the superior performance of the year, irrespective of the circumstances.

The Precursor Awards

As the Chadwick Boseman case illustrates, even winning major precursor awards like the Golden Globes and SAG Awards is not a guarantee of Oscar victory. However, they remain a strong indicator of momentum and voter sentiment within the industry. A posthumous nominee who sweeps these earlier awards, as Heath Ledger did, is in a much stronger position. Bettors should closely monitor these ceremonies as they provide valuable data points.

The Nature of the Legacy

The nominee’s overall career and standing in the industry can play a role. A beloved and respected figure who may have been overlooked in the past could garner more support. This was a factor some analysts considered with Boseman, who was a widely admired actor whose career was cut tragically short. However, as his loss demonstrated, this is not a deciding factor on its own.

Ultimately, betting on the ‘posthumous nominee’ effect is a high-stakes game of weighing emotion against artistic merit. While the heart of the industry may lean towards a sentimental tribute, the head of the voters often makes the final, and sometimes surprising, decision. For the savvy bettor, understanding this dynamic is the key to making an informed wager.