How to Bet on the MAMA Awards 2025: Daesang Chances, Performance Collabs & Fan-Vote Swings

The end of November has arrived, and for K-pop fans, that means all eyes are turning toward Hong Kong. After a seven-year hiatus from the city, the 2025 MAMA Awards are taking over the newly built Kai Tak Stadium on November 28 and 29. Despite the somber news regarding the recent fire in public housing nearby, the show is proceeding with a “subdued” but massive production.

For those looking to predict the winners, whether for bragging rights or friendly wagers, the “Mnet Asian Music Awards” (now just MAMA Awards) can seem like a chaotic mix of acronyms and popularity contests. However, unlike the Melon Music Awards (MMA), which rely heavily on domestic streaming data, MAMA uses a complex formula of judges, global sales, and voting. If you want to pick the winners correctly, you have to look at the math, not just the music.

The Venue and “Home” Advantage

The return to Hong Kong is significant. Mnet is celebrating its 30th anniversary, and the scale of Kai Tak Stadium (50,000 capacity) suggests they are aiming for a blockbuster visual experience. While location doesn’t officially dictate winners, the massive Chinese fanbase often sways the energy. Groups with strong popularity in the Greater China region, such as SEVENTEEN and aespa, will likely have the loudest crowd support, which often translates to “Best Performance” wins even if they miss the Grand Prizes (Daesangs).

Crunching the Numbers for Artist of the Year

The “Visa Artist of the Year” is the night’s biggest prize. The formula here is 30% streaming, 30% album sales, and a whopping 40% judge evaluation. This is where the betting gets tricky. While fandoms vote furiously, the judges hold nearly half the power.

SEVENTEEN and Stray Kids have dominated physical sales, giving them a massive edge in the 30% album category. However, aespa and Blackpink’s Rosé have dominated streaming. If you are placing a prediction, look at the judges’ historical preference for “impact.” With Rosé’s “APT.” becoming a global cultural moment, she has the narrative momentum that judges usually love.

The Song of the Year Battle

For “Song of the Year,” the criteria shift to 60% streaming and 40% judges. Physical sales don’t matter here. This category is a direct showdown between the year’s viral hits.

The heavy favorite is Rosé and Bruno Mars with “APT.” The track has been inescapable globally. However, do not discount aespa’s “Whiplash” or “Supernova” (depending on specific eligibility cutoffs and judge selection). The smart money is on Rosé, as MAMA prides itself on being “global,” and awarding a track that topped charts worldwide validates their international brand.

Album of the Year: The Sales Game

This category is the safest bet on the board. The criteria are 60% physical sales and 40% judges, limited to albums that sold over 1 million copies. This effectively removes many digital-heavy artists from contention.

SEVENTEEN and Stray Kids are the titans here. SEVENTEEN’s SPILL THE FEELS and Stray Kids’ KARMA moved millions of units. Given that Stray Kids are debuting a new track, “DIVINE,” live at the ceremony, Mnet is giving them a spotlight that often hints at a major trophy. If you have to choose one, the sales data slightly favors SEVENTEEN, but the “attendance bonus”, where performing artists often win big, keeps Stray Kids in the running.

The “Music Visionary” Wildcard

Last year, G-Dragon won the inaugural “Music Visionary of the Year” and jokingly vowed not to let it go. He is confirmed to perform in Chapter 2 (Nov 29). When a legend like G-Dragon shows up to perform, they rarely leave empty-handed. Expect him to either repeat this win or take home a specialized “Icon” award.

Reading the Performance Lineup

MAMA is famous for its stages, and the lineup often leaks the winners. Artists don’t fly to Hong Kong for a participation ribbon.

• The Netflix Tie-in:There is a confirmed collaboration with the animated film KPop Demon Hunters. Members from BoyNextDoor, RIIZE, TWS, and ZEROBASEONE are performing as the “Saja Boys.” Expect these groups to sweep the “Best New Male Artist” or “Best Dance Performance” categories.
• The Legend Stage:Super Junior is celebrating their 20th anniversary. They are a lock for an “Inspiring Achievement” or “Legend” award.

The Fan Vote Volatility

The “Fans’ Choice” awards are 90% Mnet Plus votes and 10% social media. This is purely a numbers game. BTS members (Jin, J-Hope) are nominated. Even with the group on hiatus, the ARMY voting block is undefeated. If a BTS member is in a fan-voted category, do not bet against them.

The Dark Horses

Keep an eye on ZEROBASEONE and BABYMONSTER. BABYMONSTER is performing in Chapter 1 and has massive YouTube views, which helps in the “Worldwide Fans’ Choice” calculations. They are strong contenders to upset established groups in the “Best Female Group” or dance categories due to their rapid international growth.

The 2025 MAMA Awards will be a tug-of-war between physical sales giants and digital streaming darlings. For the safest predictions, back SEVENTEEN for Album, Rosé for Song, and watch for a split decision on Artist of the Year. Enjoy the “Uh-Heung” tiger theme, and may your predictions be as accurate as the choreography.