How to Bet on the Hong Kong Film Awards 2026: Best Film, Action Chops & Star-Director Pairings

It is November 2025, and the cinematic landscape in Hong Kong and the broader Chinese-language market has shifted dramatically. After a challenging 2024 where box office revenues dipped by over 22%, the industry has staged a formidable comeback this year. With the 50th Hong Kong International Film Festival (HKIFF) approaching in April 2026, speculation regarding the Hong Kong Film Awards (HKFA) is heating up.

For film fans and punters looking to predict the winners of the 2026 statuettes, the field is defined by a clash between high-octane blockbusters and intimate, festival-acclaimed dramas. Based on the release calendar and critical reception throughout 2025, here is a guide on where the smart money should go.

The Heavyweight Action Contender

If you are looking for a safe bet in the technical categories, and potentially Best Director, look no further than Operation Hadal. Released in the summer, this film marks China’s first foray into deep-sea military espionage. Directed by the veteran Dante Lam, known for his explosive mastery in Operation Red Sea, this film features an elite squad facing underwater peril.

Lam is a darling of the HKFA when it comes to action choreography, sound design, and visual effects. Given the film’s scale and the technical difficulty of underwater sequences, Operation Hadal is the frontrunner to sweep the “action chops” categories.

The Wuxia Renaissance

Late 2025 brought us The Legend of the Condor Heroes. Adaptations of Louis Cha’s (Jin Yong) work are cultural touchstones in Hong Kong cinema. This coming-of-age story of Guo Jing involves stunning fight choreography and a rich narrative tapestry.

Historically, the HKFA loves to honor wuxia when it is done with high production values. Because it was released late in the year, it benefits from recency bias. Voters often remember the spectacle they saw in December more vividly than what they watched in January. This is a strong contender for Best Film and Best Costume Design.

The Emotional Dark Horse

While blockbusters dominate the box office, the HKFA voters often reserve their highest honors for films with social commentary and emotional depth. Girls on Wire, directed by Vivian Qu, fits this mold perfectly. Shortlisted for the 75th Berlin International Film Festival, this drama tracks two estranged cousins over two decades.

Films that perform well at European festivals often gain a “prestige” aura that translates into votes for Best Screenplay and Best Actress. If you are betting on the acting categories, look at the leads in this film. The narrative of resilience and redemption is exactly the type of storytelling that resonates with the jury.

The Fantasy Juggernaut

Creation of the Gods II: Demon Force hit theaters back in February for the Lunar New Year. As a sequel to a massive hit, it expanded on Chinese mythology with moral dilemmas and epic battles. While fantasy sequels sometimes struggle to win Best Film, they are absolute monsters in the technical departments. Expect this title to go head-to-head with Operation Hadal for Visual Effects and Art Direction.

The “Oscar Halo” Effect

We cannot ignore the influence of The Last Dance. Although it swept the 43rd HKFA earlier in 2025, it was selected in September 2025 as Hong Kong’s official submission for the Oscars 2026. This keeps the film’s stars, Dayo Wong and Michael Hui, and director Anselm Chan in the conversation.

While The Last Dance itself isn’t eligible for the 2026 HKFA (having won in the previous cycle), its massive success, becoming the highest-grossing Chinese-language film in Hong Kong, sets a trend. Voters are currently favoring films that explore local traditions (like the funeral rites in The Last Dance) and human connection. Films released in 2025 that mimic this blend of local culture and comedy, such as Detective Chinatown 1900, might see a boost in the Best Picture popularity voting.

Animation Breaking Through

2025 was a banner year for animation with Boonie Bears: Future Reborn and Ne Zha 2. Ne Zha 2, in particular, explores complex themes of responsibility and destiny. While the HKFA rarely awards Best Film to animated features, the “Best Asian Chinese Language Film” category is a prime target for this blockbuster. The visual artistry involved makes it a lock for a nomination, if not a win, in that specific category.

Star-Director Synergy

When placing bets, always look at the director. Dante Lam (Operation Hadal) commands loyalty and delivers technical precision. Vivian Qu (Girls on Wire) extracts raw, award-winning performances. The synergy in Detective Chinatown 1900, set in turn-of-the-century San Francisco, relies on the chemistry of its ensemble cast to land its comedy-mystery mix. The HKFA loves a good ensemble cast, and this prequel’s historical setting adds a layer of production value that voters appreciate.

The 2026 Hong Kong Film Awards will likely be a battle between the underwater intensity of Operation Hadal and the martial arts grandeur of The Legend of the Condor Heroes. However, do not discount the quiet power of Girls on Wire. As the industry rebounds from the 2024 slump, the voters may choose to reward the film that best represents the artistic soul of the region, rather than just its box office muscle.