How to Bet on the Goya Awards 2026: Best Film, Acting Races & Surprise Director Picks

The 40th edition of the Goya Awards is scheduled for February 28, 2026, and the atmosphere is already buzzing with anticipation. For film buffs and bettors alike, this year offers a unique set of variables. We aren’t just looking at a standard ceremony; we are looking at a milestone anniversary taking place in Barcelona, a city that has become the beating heart of the country’s current cinematic renaissance.

If you are looking to place wagers on the “Spanish Oscars,” you need more than just a hunch. You need to look at the regional politics, the festival circuits, and the specific tastes of the Academy of Cinematographic Arts and Sciences of Spain. The 2024 ceremony saw Netflix’s Society of the Snow sweep the board with 12 trophies, but 2026 is shaping up to be a tighter, more artistic race.

Here is your guide to analyzing the field and making smart predictions for the upcoming Goya Awards.

The Barcelona Advantage

Location matters. The 2026 ceremony will be held at the CCIB Auditorium in Barcelona. This is significant because the Academy often leans into the local culture of the host city. In 2024, the awards were in Valladolid, but the move to the Catalan capital for the 40th anniversary is a deliberate nod to the region’s power.

Catalan cinema is having a massive moment. The Academy President, Fernando Méndez-Leite, specifically highlighted the strength of the local industry during the venue announcement. When handicapping the Best Film race, give a slight edge to Catalan productions. The voters will likely want to celebrate the “home team” on such a historic night. If a film has strong Catalan roots in production or direction, its odds of taking home the top prize just went up.

Analyzing the Best Film Frontrunners

We already have a clear indicator of the heavyweights thanks to the Spanish Oscar shortlist announced earlier this year. The three films vying to represent Spain (Romería, Sirat, and Sorda) are the de facto frontrunners for the Goya for Best Film.

Romería, directed by Carla Simón, is the one to watch. Simón is a darling of the festival circuit and a previous Goya favorite. Given that Romería is a Catalan production, it aligns perfectly with the narrative of the night. Sirat by Oliver Laxe is another strong contender, offering the kind of introspective, auteur filmmaking the Academy respects. When placing bets, look for these titles. The Oscar shortlist is almost always a preview of the Goya Best Film nominees.

The Director’s Chair: Auteur Visions

In 2024, J.A. Bayona dominated the Best Director category. His win was expected; he helmed a massive international production that demanded technical mastery. However, 2026 feels different. The vibe is shifting back toward intimate, personal storytelling.

This year, the smart money is on directors who control their own scripts. The “writer-director” is a revered figure in Spanish cinema. If you are betting on Best Director, look for the filmmakers behind Romería and Sirat. The split between Best Film and Best Director is rare in the Goya Awards, as they usually go hand-in-hand. If you are backing a movie for Best Film, double down on its director.

Reading the Hosts for Clues

The choice of hosts can set the tone for the evening, even if they don’t decide the winners. For the 40th edition, the Academy has tapped acting heavyweight Luis Tosar and musician-filmmaker Rigoberta Bandini.

Tosar is a three-time Goya winner (for Mondays in the Sun, Take My Eyes, and Cell 211) and an 11-time nominee. His presence signals a ceremony that respects the craft of acting above all else. Bandini, who won Best Original Song in 2024, brings a modern, musical energy. This pairing suggests the Academy is trying to bridge the gap between prestige cinema and pop culture relevance. Expect the “Best Original Song” and “Best Original Score” categories to get more spotlight than usual, potentially favoring films with strong musical identities.

Scouting the Acting Categories

Predicting the acting winners requires looking at the “overdue” narrative versus the “breakout” narrative. Spanish cinema loves to crown veteran character actors who finally land a lead role—think of Malena Alterio winning Best Actress in 2024 for Something Is About to Happen or David Verdaguer for Jokes & Cigarettes.

Review the cast lists of the top contenders. Is there a respected veteran in a lead role in Romería or Sorda? That is your safest bet. Conversely, for the “Best New Actor/Actress” categories, look for young talent in the gritty, realistic dramas. The Academy rarely gives these breakout awards to actors in comedies; they prefer raw, dramatic debuts.

The Technical Sweep Potential

When Society of the Snow won 12 awards, it cleaned up in categories like Makeup, Special Effects, and Sound. That film was a technical marvel. For 2026, assess the visual scope of the nominees.

If Sirat or Romería are visually stunning but grounded dramas, they will likely split the technical awards. However, if there is a genre film or a period piece in the mix, that single film often acts as a vacuum for Costume Design, Art Direction, and Production Design. Do not spread your bets too thin on technicals; usually, one film with high production value takes the majority of the “below-the-line” statues.

The Honorary Factor

We already know that filmmaker Gonzalo Suárez will receive the Honorary Goya. Suárez is an experimental, literary figure in Spanish cinema, known for a career that defies commercial conventions.

While you cannot bet on this specific award, his selection reinforces the idea that this is a year for “art” over “commerce.” In years where the Honorary Goya goes to a very commercial star, the main awards sometimes follow suit. With Suárez being honored, the voting body is likely in a mindset to reward intellectual, challenging cinema rather than box-office hits.

Wrapping Up Your Ballot

As we approach February 28, keep your eyes on the festival reviews coming out of San Sebastián and the buzz in Barcelona. The 40th anniversary is a celebration of survival and identity for Spanish film.

The winning formula for 2026 seems to be: Catalan roots, auteur direction, and dramatic weight. Romería checks many of these boxes, but the Goya voters are known for their occasional curveballs. By focusing on the Oscar shortlist and the distinct “home turf” advantage of the Barcelona venue, you will be well-positioned to predict who takes home the bust of Francisco de Goya this year.