How to Bet on the Golden Horse Awards 2026: Best Feature, Auteur Momentum & Regional Dark Horses

The confetti has barely been swept away from the 62nd Golden Horse Awards, yet the conversation is already shifting toward next year. The 2025 ceremony was a watershed moment for Asian cinema, proving that the “Oscars of the Chinese-speaking world” are no longer dominated solely by traditional powerhouses. With a Malaysian film sweeping acting and technical categories and a Taiwanese historical drama taking the top prize, the landscape is wider than ever.

If you are looking to predict the winners for 2026, you cannot simply look at box office numbers or star power. You need to look at the specific trends established this year. From the rise of Southeast Asian auteurs to the specific types of roles that woo the jury, here is a guide to spotting the next big winners.

The “Historical Atmosphere” Factor

When predicting Best Narrative Feature, look for films that dig into the past with a heavy emphasis on visual language. The 2025 winner, A Foggy Tale, dominated the night not just by winning the top prize, but by securing Best Art Direction, Best Costume Design, and Best Original Screenplay. Set during the White Terror period, it fit a classic Golden Horse profile: historical introspection combined with high-end production design. For 2026, keep an eye on productions that tackle 20th-century history, particularly those that invest heavily in period aesthetics. If a film looks like a painting and hurts like a history book, it is a frontrunner.

The Malaysian New Wave

The most undeniable trend from the 2025 awards was the dominance of Malaysia. This wasn’t a fluke; it was a takeover. Mother Bhumi, directed by Chong Keat Aun, secured Best Actress, Best Cinematography, and Best Original Song. Another Malaysian entry, The Waves Will Carry Us, grabbed Best Supporting Actress.

For your 2026 predictions, pay close attention to co-productions involving Malaysia. The region is currently producing some of the most culturally rich and critically acclaimed content in the Chinese-speaking world. If you see a Malaysian director attached to a project, especially one dealing with local folklore or social realism, put it on your shortlist.

The “Ugly” Transformation

The Academy loves a transformation. Fan Bingbing’s win for Best Actress in Mother Bhumi is the perfect blueprint for what voters want. She traded her usual high-glamour image for the role of a weathered, widowed farmer and ritual healer. Similarly, Chang Chen won Best Actor for Lucky Lu by playing a food delivery rider, a role that required a grounded, gritty performance rather than leading-man charisma.

When scanning the 2026 contenders, look for A-list stars who are stripping away the makeup. If a famous actor is playing a laborer, a struggling parent, or someone on the fringes of society, their odds of winning skyrocket.

Hong Kong’s Intimate Turn

While big action blockbusters from Hong Kong used to be staples, the wind has shifted toward intimate, personal storytelling. Jun Li’s win for Best Director with Queerpanorama, a film about a young gay man, signals that the jury is prioritizing strong artistic vision over budget. For the upcoming year, look for Hong Kong independent dramas that focus on identity and marginalized communities rather than explosions.

The Singaporean Contender

Singapore is inching closer to the main stage. While Richie Koh missed out on Best Actor for A Good Child in 2025, his nomination alongside industry titans like Chang Chen proves that Singaporean talent is on the jury’s radar. The film’s focus on a drag queen’s life also aligns with the festival’s appreciation for diverse narratives. Watch for Singaporean dramas that push social boundaries; they are becoming legitimate dark horses.

Cross-Border Collaborations

The lines between industries are blurring. Lucky Lu featured a Taiwanese star but was helmed by Canadian director Lloyd Lee Choi, who won Best New Director. Mother Bhumi starred a Chinese actress in a Malaysian setting. The winning formula for 2026 will likely involve cross-pollination. Films that mix talent from Taiwan, China, and the diaspora are bringing fresh energy that the judges clearly appreciate.

Technical Mastery Equals Best Picture Potential

Finally, never separate the technical awards from the main prizes. A Foggy Tale won Best Film largely because it was a technical marvel, sweeping the design categories. Mother Bhumi won Best Cinematography, which bolstered its standing in the major categories. When you see early buzz about a film’s lighting, sound design, or score, take note. A film rarely wins Best Narrative Feature without strong support from the technical branches.

Looking Ahead

The 2025 awards proved that the Golden Horse is evolving into a truly pan-Asian platform. The winning strategy for predicting 2026 involves looking south to Malaysia, expecting stars to get gritty, and betting on films that treat history with visual reverence. The next masterpiece might not come from a major studio in Taipei or Beijing, but from a rice paddy in Kedah or an indie set in Kowloon. Keep your eyes open.