How to Bet on the “Globes Effect” Ahead of the Oscars

For movie lovers who enjoy a friendly wager, the time between the Golden Globe Awards and the Academy Awards is a season of its own. It’s a period filled with speculation, shifting odds, and the tantalizing question of whether a big win at the Globes can create a wave that carries a film or performer all the way to Oscar glory. This phenomenon, often called the “Globes Effect,” has long been a key factor for those looking to place a smart bet on Hollywood’s biggest night. But how reliable is it, and how can you use it to your advantage?

The Globe in Hand Versus the Oscar Statuette

Historically, there is a connection between winning a Golden Globe and taking home an Oscar, but it’s a nuanced relationship that varies by category. It’s not a simple one-to-one correlation, and savvy bettors know where to place their trust and where to be skeptical.

The strongest link can be found in the acting categories. A Golden Globe win for an actor or actress often serves as a powerful indicator of future Oscar success. For example, in the last three decades, the vast majority of Best Actress and Best Actor Oscar winners had previously won a Globe. Recent examples include Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea (2017) and Emma Stone for La La Land (2017), who both won the Globe before accepting their Oscars. This strong correlation is partly because a compelling Globe acceptance speech can resonate with Academy voters, who are in the midst of their voting period.

However, the Best Picture category is a different story. The Globes award two top prizes, one for Drama and one for Musical/Comedy, which doubles their chances of picking the eventual Oscar winner. Yet, their track record has become less reliable in recent years. While from 1990 to 2004, a Globe winner for Best Picture went on to win the Oscar 12 out of 15 times, the trend has since shifted. In the years following, it has become more common for the Oscar for Best Picture to go to a film that did not win the top prize at the Globes. For instance, in 2024, Oppenheimer won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Drama and went on to win the Best Picture Oscar, but in 2023, The Fabelmans won the Globe for Best Drama while Everything Everywhere All at Once took home the Oscar for Best Picture. This makes relying solely on the Globes’ Best Picture winner a riskier bet.

Decoding the Odds

For those new to betting, understanding the odds is important. When you look at betting lines for the Oscars, you’ll typically see numbers with a plus (+) or minus (-) sign. A minus sign indicates the favorite; the number next to it shows how much you’d need to bet to win $100. For example, if a film is listed at -150, you would need to wager $150 to make a $100 profit. A plus sign denotes an underdog; the number indicates how much you would win for every $100 you bet. A film at +500 means a $100 bet would return $500 in profit.

The “Globes Effect” can be seen in how these numbers move. A surprise winner at the Globes can see their odds shorten dramatically. For instance, a performer might start with longshot odds of +1000, but after a Globe win, their odds could plummet to +200 or even into favorite territory. The key for a bettor is to decide whether that shift reflects genuine momentum or an overreaction by the market. Placing a bet on a contender before a potential precursor win can often yield a much higher payout.

Look Beyond the Globes

While the Golden Globes are the most publicized precursor, they are not the most predictive. The real secret weapon for serious Oscar bettors lies with the various industry guild awards that take place after the Globes but before Oscar night. These include the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards, and the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards.

The predictive power of these guilds comes down to their voting bodies. The members of these guilds (the actors, directors, and producers) have a significant overlap with the membership of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, the organization that votes for the Oscars. When a film or individual wins a SAG, DGA, or PGA award, it means they have been honored by their peers, the very same people who will be casting ballots for the Oscars.

The SAG Awards are particularly telling for the acting categories. Over its history, the SAG Awards have an exceptional track record of predicting the Oscar winners for acting, often over 70% of the time. A win at the SAGs can solidify a frontrunner’s status or signal a major upset in the making.

Similarly, the DGA Award for Best Director is an incredibly reliable bellwether. Historically, the DGA winner has gone on to win the Best Director Oscar with remarkable frequency. The PGA Awards are also a strong indicator for the Best Picture race, as their preferential voting system mirrors the one used by the Academy for its top prize. In many recent years, the film that won the top prize at the PGA also won Best Picture at the Oscars.

Crafting Your Strategy

So, how do you put all this information together to make an informed bet? First, use the Golden Globes as a starting point, not a conclusion. A Globe win, especially in an acting category, certainly boosts a contender’s chances and will shorten their odds. If you have a strong feeling about a nominee before the Globes, placing a bet then could offer great value.

After the Globes, turn your attention to the guild awards. Monitor the winners of the DGA, PGA, and SAG awards closely. These results often provide a much clearer picture of where the industry’s support lies. If a single film starts sweeping these awards, it may be a sign of an impending Oscar sweep, and the betting odds will reflect that.

It’s also important to watch for upsets. Sometimes, a film that was shut out at the Golden Globes can gain late-breaking momentum with the guilds. This is where opportunities for smart underdog bets can arise. For example, a film that loses at the Globes but then wins at the DGA and PGA ceremonies could become the new, true frontrunner for Best Picture.

Ultimately, betting on the “Globes Effect” is about recognizing that the Golden Globes are just one piece of a much larger puzzle. They kick off the conversation and create the initial narratives, but the story is truly written in the weeks that follow. By paying attention to the full spectrum of precursor awards and understanding the voting dynamics at play, you can move beyond the hype and place your bets with greater confidence.