How to Bet on the AARP Movies for Grownups Awards 2026: Winners, Upsets & “Best Picture” Odds

As the calendar turns toward the end of 2025, the film industry is officially deep in the trenches of awards season. While the Golden Globes and Oscars often steal the headlines, the AARP Movies for Grownups Awards have carved out a vital niche. Honoring the best in film and television by and for the 50-plus crowd, this ceremony has become a surprisingly accurate bellwether for the Academy Awards, particularly in the acting categories.

With the nominations officially announced on November 19, we now have a clear picture of the field. The ceremony is set for January 10, 2026, at the Beverly Wilshire, with Alan Cumming returning as host. For those looking to place a wager in an office pool or simply predict the night’s outcomes, the nomination list offers plenty of data.

Here is a breakdown of where the smart money should go for the 2026 ceremony.

The Frontrunner: One Battle After Another

If you are looking for the safest bet of the night, look no further than Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. This film has dominated the nomination list in a way rarely seen, securing nods for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Best Supporting Actor (both Sean Penn and Benicio Del Toro), Best Supporting Actress (Regina Hall), and Best Screenplay.

The sheer volume of nominations suggests broad support within the voting body. The film ticks every box for the AARP demographic: it features a cast of beloved veterans, it tackles complex political themes through a counterculture lens, and it is helmed by a director who has matured into a Hollywood statesman. While Hamnet offers a classical alternative and A House of Dynamite brings high-stakes thrills, the momentum behind One Battle After Another feels insurmountable. It is the heavy favorite to take home the top prize.

Best Director: Experience Over Everything

The Best Director category is a clash of titans, but the odds favor those who have consistently delivered over decades. Kathryn Bigelow, at 74, is a strong contender for A House of Dynamite. Her return to the war-room thriller genre plays to her strengths, and the AARP voters love a director who maintains high-octane energy later in life.

However, Paul Thomas Anderson is the likely winner here as well, assuming his film sweeps. A potential upset could come from Scott Cooper for Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere. Biopics about boomer-era icons are usually catnip for this voting body. Yet, the fact that Springsteen missed a Best Picture nomination hurts Cooper’s chances. Keep an eye on Spike Lee for Highest 2 Lowest as a dark horse value bet; his adaptation of a Kurosawa classic starring Denzel Washington is exactly the kind of cinema this group respects.

Lead Actor: The Rock vs. The A-Listers

This category presents one of the most fascinating narratives of the year. You have the traditional heavyweights: George Clooney for Jay Kelly and Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another. DiCaprio is the safe pick, given the film’s overall strength.

However, the “narrative bet” is Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson for The Smashing Machine. At 53, Johnson has pivoted from blockbusters to a gritty, A24-produced drama about an MMA fighter. Awards bodies love to reward a star who steps out of their comfort zone to do “serious work.” While Ethan Hawke is receiving critical praise for Blue Moon, Johnson’s transformation is the kind of story that wins votes. If you want to bet on an upset, put your money on The Rock.

Lead Actress: The June Squibb Phenomenon

In the Best Actress race, the field is stacked with icons like Julia Roberts (After the Hunt) and Jodie Foster (A Private Life). Laura Dern is also in the mix for Is This Thing On?. Yet, the smartest money is on June Squibb for Eleanor the Great.

At 96 years old, Squibb is the embodiment of the “Movies for Grownups” ethos. Her performance in Scarlett Johansson’s directorial debut is reportedly comedic, emotional, and sharp. The AARP awards exist specifically to celebrate the idea that talent does not diminish with age. Awarding a 96-year-old lead actress is not just a celebration of her performance; it is a statement of purpose for the organization. Unless Julia Roberts sweeps the precursors, Squibb is the one to beat.

Supporting Players: The Safest Bets on the Board

The supporting categories are often where the biggest stars are hiding. For Best Supporting Actor, Sean Penn seems locked in for One Battle After Another. His role as Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw is described as a “towering, live-wire performance,” and voters love a villainous turn from a usually dramatic lead. His main competition is his co-star Benicio Del Toro, but vote-splitting is less of a concern when one performance is significantly “louder” than the other.

On the Best Supporting Actress side, Helen Mirren (Goodbye June) is a perennial favorite. However, do not discount Sigourney Weaver for Avatar: Fire and Ash. While blockbuster sci-fi usually struggles at awards shows, Weaver is 76 and an icon. If the voters want to acknowledge the massive success of the Avatar franchise, this is the place they will do it. Still, if you want to play it safe, bet on Mirren or Regina Hall.

The Adam Sandler Factor

Finally, we must consider the impact of the Career Achievement Award. This year, the honor goes to Adam Sandler. While this is a non-competitive award, it often signals a “halo effect” for the recipient’s current projects. Sandler is nominated for Best Screenplay and is part of the Best Ensemble for Jay Kelly.

Voters who are already celebrating Sandler’s career might be more inclined to check the box for Jay Kelly in the Ensemble category. It is a way to give him a competitive win alongside his honorary one. Consequently, Jay Kelly has a higher probability of winning Best Ensemble than the odds might initially suggest, serving as a spoiler to One Battle After Another.

Making Your Picks

When the envelopes are opened on January 10, expect a night dominated by Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, with significant love shown to June Squibb and perhaps a surprising win for Dwayne Johnson. The AARP Movies for Grownups Awards are unique because they strip away the pretension of “coolness” that affects other voting bodies and focus entirely on craft, longevity, and storytelling. If you stick to the veterans and the narratives of reinvention, you will likely come out on top.