How to Bet on Overdue Wins: When It’s Someone’s ‘Turn’ to Win

Awards season brings a unique thrill to fans of film, television, and music. It’s a time of celebration, passionate debate, and, for a growing number of people, a chance to place a friendly wager. While many bets are placed based on critical acclaim or box office success, a powerful and often influential factor can sway voters and create interesting betting opportunities: the narrative that a nominee is simply “overdue” for a win. This is the story of the respected veteran, the artist with a string of nominations but no trophy, the creator who everyone agrees it’s finally their ‘turn’ to take the stage.

This “overdue” narrative is a compelling force in the awards world. It suggests that the Academy, the Recording Academy, or other voting bodies owe a particular artist a win as a form of repayment for past slights or years of consistently excellent work. We saw this play out with actors like Leonardo DiCaprio before his Oscar win for The Revenant, and more recently with Christopher Nolan and Robert Downey Jr. finally getting their Oscar moments for Oppenheimer. These aren’t just wins for a single performance; they often feel like career achievement awards, a collective sigh of relief from the industry and fans alike. For those looking to make informed bets, understanding this dynamic can be a key piece of the puzzle.

Spotting the “Overdue” Candidate  

So, how do you identify a nominee who might be riding the “overdue” wave? The most obvious sign is a long history of nominations without a single win. Think of an actress like Glenn Close, who holds the record for the most Oscar nominations without a victory, or Amy Adams, with six nominations and no statue to show for it. These performers are frequently mentioned in media discussions as deserving recognition for their entire body of work. The conversation often intensifies when they deliver a performance that, while strong, might not be their absolute career-best, yet the momentum for a win builds anyway.

Beyond just the number of nominations, consider the nominee’s reputation within their industry. Are they an “actor’s actor” like Paul Giamatti, widely respected by their peers? Or a director like Paul Thomas Anderson, who has been delivering critically acclaimed films for over two decades without a directing Oscar? The sentiment from within the industry itself, often reflected in trade publications and interviews, is a strong indicator. When you hear fellow artists and critics repeatedly saying someone is due, it’s a good sign that voters are hearing it too. This internal industry buzz can be far more telling than public opinion alone.

The Narrative vs The Performance

Betting on an “overdue” narrative is not without its risks. The most important factor should always be the quality of the nominated work itself. Sometimes, a powerful narrative can’t overcome a truly transcendent performance by a competitor. Paul Giamatti was considered a strong “overdue” candidate for The Holdovers, but he ultimately lost to Cillian Murphy’s powerhouse performance in Oppenheimer. Similarly, Glenn Close was widely expected to finally win for The Wife, but Olivia Colman’s surprise victory for The Favourite proved that nothing is ever a sure thing.

The key is to weigh the strength of the narrative against the competition. Is the “overdue” candidate in a field of equally strong, or even stronger, performances? If so, the narrative might not be enough to carry them across the finish line. However, if the race appears to be tight, or if there isn’t one clear frontrunner based on the work alone, the “overdue” status can become the deciding factor that sways voters. It provides an easy and satisfying story for the evening.

Beyond the Obvious Choices

While A-list actors and directors often dominate the “overdue” conversation, there’s value in looking at other categories and award shows. At the Grammys, for instance, artists like Snoop Dogg and Katy Perry have amassed a surprising number of nominations over the years without ever taking home a trophy. Snoop Dogg has been nominated 17 times without a win. Artists like Björk and Lana Del Rey are also frequently cited as influential musicians who have yet to be recognized with a Grammy win.

These situations can present interesting betting opportunities, sometimes with more favorable odds than the high-profile acting races. The same principles apply: look for a history of nominations, a respected career, and a year where their nominated work is strong enough to be a serious contender. The narrative of a long-snubbed artist finally getting their due is a powerful one, and it can happen in any category, from Best Original Song to Best Costume Design.

By paying attention to these underlying stories, you can add another layer of insight to your awards season predictions and maybe even come out a winner yourself.