How to Bet on MrBeast’s Next Stunt, Upload Windows & Day-1 View Milestones

It was a digital time capsule. Just last week, a video that Jimmy Donaldson, the man we all know as MrBeast, scheduled way back in his early YouTube days finally went public. In it, a much younger Jimmy, sitting in a simple room, spoke to his future self and his then-tiny audience, dreaming aloud about one day, maybe, hitting one million subscribers. The contrast is staggering. As of October 2025, with his channel soaring past 421 million subscribers and his influence rivaling that of small nations, that one-million-subscriber dream feels like a relic from another era.

This meteoric rise has created a unique culture around his channel. His uploads are no longer just videos; they are global events. And with any major event, a new kind of fan engagement has emerged: prediction markets and friendly betting pools. Fans are now putting their analytical skills to the test, trying to forecast everything from the theme of his next epic production to the exact number of views it will get in its first 24 hours.

If you’ve ever wanted to move beyond simply watching and start actively predicting, this guide will walk you through how to make educated guesses on the biggest creator on the planet.

Deciphering the Next Grand Spectacle  

Trying to predict the subject of the next MrBeast video can feel like trying to guess the lottery numbers. His concepts range from burying himself alive to recreating Squid Game to funding cataract surgery for a thousand people. The scope is immense, but his methods have patterns. Making an informed prediction requires a bit of detective work.

First, become a student of his content history. His videos generally fall into a few core categories: endurance challenges (“Last To Leave X Wins Y”), large-scale competitions with a single winner, astonishing acts of philanthropy, and “I did X for Y hours/days” personal challenges. Take note of which category he hasn’t touched on in a while. If his last three videos were philanthropic and competitive, an endurance or personal challenge might be due. He and his team are masters of variety, ensuring their audience never gets bored.

Second, expand your watch party to include his entire crew. Jimmy isn’t a solo act. Pay close attention to the social media accounts of his core team: Chandler, Karl, Tareq, and Mack. While they are sworn to secrecy, clues occasionally slip through. A photo from an airport in a specific country, a cryptic tweet about being exhausted, or a background detail in an Instagram story can be the breadcrumb that leads to a major revelation. For instance, a few years back, several team members posting from what looked like a desolate, snowy landscape was the primary clue that the “I Spent 7 Days Stranded At Sea” video was coming.

Finally, listen to what Jimmy says outside of his main channel videos. In podcasts, interviews, and even casual posts on X, he often drops hints about his long-term ambitions. For years he talked about wanting to do a video in space or one set in Antarctica. These aren’t just idle thoughts; they are a public roadmap of his ultimate goals. When a video lines up with one of these “bucket list” ideas, its chances of being next on the slate increase dramatically.

Pinpointing the Upload Window

For years, the MrBeast upload schedule was one of the most consistent things on YouTube: a new, mind-blowing video would appear on a Saturday. This allowed anticipation to build all week, culminating in a weekend event. While Saturdays remain his preferred day, the sheer complexity and scale of his modern productions have introduced more variability. A billion-dollar yacht video or a project involving coordinating with multiple governments can face unexpected delays.

To get an edge in predicting the upload day, data is your best friend. Create a simple spreadsheet and log the upload dates and times of his last 15-20 videos. Note the day of the week and the time of day (including the time zone, which is typically Eastern Time). You will likely see a heavy concentration on Saturdays, but you might also spot a secondary pattern, perhaps a late-week upload on a Friday if a major holiday is approaching.

The most reliable indicator of an imminent upload is the “hype cycle” he initiates. This usually begins 24 to 48 hours before the video goes live. It starts with a post on his social media channels revealing the video’s title and thumbnail. This is the starting gun. Once that thumbnail is out in the wild, the upload is almost certainly happening within two days. For example, if he posts a thumbnail on a Thursday afternoon with a title like “I Built A Real-Life Chocolate Factory!”, you can be extremely confident that the video will premiere that Saturday. Tracking this reveal-to-upload timeline is the single most accurate way to pinpoint the release window.

Projecting Day-1 Viewership Milestones

This is where the analysis gets even more granular. Betting on whether a MrBeast video will hit 100 million, 125 million, or even 150 million views in its first 24 hours has become a popular game on entertainment prediction sites. Success here depends on blending historical data with an assessment of the new video’s viral potential.

Your first step is to establish a baseline. Go back to your spreadsheet and add a column for 24-hour view counts for his last 10 videos. Calculate the average. This number is your starting point. Very few of his videos will perform below this baseline. The real question is how far above it the new one will go.

Next, apply what can be called a “concept multiplier.” Some video ideas are simply bigger than others. A video with a powerful, universally understood emotional core, like helping a community or a massive philanthropic act, tends to have a higher ceiling for virality. The video where he funded surgeries for the blind is a prime example; its shareability went far beyond his usual audience. Compare this to a more standard, albeit still huge, challenge video. While entertaining, it may not have the same broad emotional appeal. When you see the new video’s title, ask yourself: “Will my grandmother want to share this?” If the answer is yes, apply a higher multiplier to your baseline prediction.

The final piece of the puzzle is the thumbnail and title combination. MrBeast and his team are the undisputed masters of this craft. How compelling is the new combo? Does it present an unbelievable premise (e.g., “World’s Most Expensive Hotel vs. World’s Cheapest Hotel”)? Does it create an immediate sense of mystery or scale? A truly A+ thumbnail can add an extra 10-20% to the first-day viewership. Analyze its clarity, emotional impact, and sheer curiosity factor to make your final adjustment.

Engaging with MrBeast’s content on this analytical level adds a fascinating new layer to the fan experience. It transforms you from a passive viewer into an active participant, celebrating not just the final product but the intricate strategy behind its creation and release. By studying his past, monitoring his team’s digital trail, and analyzing the data behind his uploads, you can turn your fan passion into surprisingly accurate predictions.