How to Bet on Long-Running Shows at the National Television Awards

The National Television Awards (NTAs) are a highlight of the UK’s entertainment calendar, a night of glitz, glamour, and genuine public opinion. Unlike many other awards ceremonies decided by critics or industry insiders, the NTAs are voted for entirely by the viewers at home. This unique characteristic makes it a fascinating event for placing a bet, turning your TV expertise into potential winnings.

However, when it comes to placing a bet, the long-running, established shows present a particularly interesting puzzle. Are they a sure thing, coasting on years of audience loyalty, or are they vulnerable to the exciting buzz of a brand-new hit? Let’s dive into the strategies for betting on these television titans.

The Power of the People: Loyalty vs. Fatigue

The single most important factor in NTA betting is understanding that it’s a popularity contest. The winners are chosen through a public vote, first from a longlist and then a final shortlist. This means your bet shouldn’t be on what the critics deem the “best” show, but on what has captured the nation’s heart.

Long-running shows build a dedicated, loyal fanbase over many years. Series like Strictly Come Dancing, a frequent winner in the Talent Show category, and the seemingly unstoppable presenting duo Ant & Dec, who have amassed an incredible 23 consecutive wins for Best Presenter, are prime examples of this loyalty paying off. These shows become a comforting, reliable part of viewers’ lives, and that translates directly into votes. For many, voting for their favorite soap or presenter is an annual tradition.

However, this is where the concept of “viewer fatigue” can create opportunities for a savvy bettor. Sometimes, an audience can tire of the same winner year after year. A show that feels like it’s resting on its laurels or has had a less-than-stellar season might see its loyal voters tempted by a fresh-faced rival.

The Serial Drama Showdown

Nowhere is the battle between old and new more apparent than in the Serial Drama category. Soaps like Coronation Street, EastEnders, and Emmerdale are institutions, but they don’t always share the crown equally. When placing a bet here, look beyond general popularity and consider the recent storylines. A particularly powerful and emotionally resonant plot can mobilize viewers in huge numbers.

For example, a character’s moving struggle with an illness, a major anniversary episode, or a gripping crime storyline can create a huge public buzz that translates into votes. Before making your selection, check social media and news reports to gauge the public reaction to recent plots. If one soap has had the nation talking for all the right reasons, it stands a strong chance of taking the award, even if it wasn’t the favorite the year before.

Spotting the Upset: When Favorites Fall

The most exciting—and potentially profitable—moments in NTA betting come from the upsets. A long-running favorite doesn’t lose its crown without a reason, and spotting these reasons is key to a successful bet against the grain.

A prime example was in 2023, when the feel-good BBC series The Repair Shop ended This Morning’s 13-year winning streak in the Daytime category. This didn’t happen in a vacuum; This Morning had faced a year of public controversy, which undoubtedly influenced voters to look elsewhere. Scandals, major cast changes, or a dip in quality can make even the most dominant show vulnerable.

Similarly, a new show can capture the public imagination so completely that it becomes an unstoppable force. The 2024 awards saw the powerful ITV drama Mr Bates vs The Post Office win multiple awards, including Best New Drama and Best Drama Performance. The show’s real-world impact and the sense of national conversation it created made it a sentimental and popular favorite, overriding the loyalty that might have gone to more established returning dramas.

Final Tips for Placing Your Bet

Before you put your money down, here are a few final thoughts:

• Do Your Research:Look at past winners on the official NTA website to understand historical trends.
• Gauge the Public Mood:Spend time on social media and fan forums to see which shows and stars are generating the most positive buzz.
• Consider the Narrative:Is there a sentimental favorite? A show with a powerful real-world story, like Kate Garraway’s authored documentaries, often resonates strongly with the public.
• Look for the Breakout Hit:Don’t underestimate a new show that has become a national talking point. In 2013, Downton Abbey triumphed over established favorites Sherlock and Doctor Who to win Best Drama, proving that a high-quality, popular series can disrupt the status quo.

Betting on the NTAs adds a thrilling extra layer to television’s biggest night. By balancing an appreciation for viewer loyalty with a keen eye for public sentiment and the potential for a dramatic upset, you can make informed choices that might just pay off.