How to Bet on Holiday TV Specials: Musical Guests, First-Look Clips & Overnight Ratings

As the air gets crisper and daylight hours wane, our screens are beginning to glow with the first signs of the holiday season. The annual avalanche of festive movies, celebrity-packed specials, and competitive baking shows is upon us. For many, this is the coziest time of the year for television viewing. It can also be a prime season for a little friendly competition of your own.

Making predictions about the holiday TV slate is a fun way to engage with the season’s programming beyond just watching. It’s a game of bragging rights, where you can place bets on everything from surprise celebrity cameos to which new movie will become an instant classic.

Here is a guide to making your most educated guesses for the 2025 holiday TV season.

Guessing the Guest List

Major holiday specials are defined by their musical guest lists, and making accurate predictions here can make you look like an industry insider. The key is to look at the network and the event itself. Take NBC’s 93rd Annual Christmas in Rockefeller Center, scheduled for December 3rd. This is one of the season’s biggest live broadcasts. To guess the performers, start by considering artists with a new holiday album. Then, look at the network’s own talent pool. It’s a safe assumption that a coach from The Voice or a popular host from the network might make an appearance. Perennial holiday figures who reliably make the rounds each December are also strong contenders.

Who’s Behind the Mask? UK Special Predictions

UK specials offer similar opportunities for speculation. Shows like the Strictly Come Dancing Christmas Special and The Masked Singer Christmas Special are built around surprising appearances. While the celebrity dancers are often announced, the musical guests remain a fun secret. Who will sing while the couples waltz? Which hidden celebrity will belt out a carol from behind a festive costume? Check the charts and recent celebrity news to make your picks.

Cable’s Festive Films

Every holiday movie fan knows the formula: a high-powered city person finds love and the Christmas spirit back in their charming small town. The fun is in the details, and first-look clips offer a glimpse into how each new film will approach these beloved tropes. When you see a 30-second teaser, you can start making predictions about the plot. This year’s schedule is packed with intriguing titles from networks like Hallmark and UP. For Hallmark’s Holiday Touchdown: A Bills Love Story, premiering November 22nd, will the first-look clip feature a snowy football practice or a tense moment at a family dinner? For Saving the Christmas Ranch on UP, you can almost guarantee the trailer will show the determined protagonist facing off against a heartless developer before a handsome local offers to help.

What Will the Trailers Reveal?

Streaming services are also in on the game, and their trailers are designed to generate excitement. Netflix is dropping Jingle Bell Heist on November 26th. Your prediction challenge here is to guess the central conflict from the trailer. Will it be a team of mismatched Santas trying to crack a safe, or a more subtle con set during a lavish holiday party? For Disney+’s A Very Jonas Christmas Movie, the clip will surely be packed with musical numbers and brotherly banter, but can you predict which classic carol they will put their own spin on? Pay attention to the quick cuts and snippets of dialogue; they often reveal more than you think.

Live Event Viewership

The ultimate bragging right comes from correctly predicting which show will win the ratings war on any given night. The safest bets are always the major live events. NBC’s broadcast of the 99th Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade on November 27th is a guaranteed ratings titan, drawing in millions of viewers before the turkey is even out of the oven. These large-scale, traditional broadcasts have a massive built-in audience that makes them the easiest to predict as the night’s winner.

Hallmark vs. GAF

The real battleground, however, is on cable, with the annual face-off between Hallmark and Great American Family (GAF). Hallmark has the advantage of established franchises. On November 15th, the network premieres Three Wisest Men, a sequel to its wildly popular Three Wise Men and a Baby. Sequels to beloved hits are almost always a sure thing for high viewership. Meanwhile, GAF continues to build its audience with its own slate of heartfelt films like Christmas of Giving and Timeless Tidings of Joy. Check the schedules and see which network has the more compelling movie title or bigger star on a particular weekend night.

Gauging Digital Dominance

Don’t count out the streamers. While they don’t release traditional overnight ratings, their impact is undeniable. Netflix’s A Merry Little Ex-Mas (November 12th) and Amazon’s Oh. What. Fun. (December 3rd) will command huge audiences. The power of a platform’s recommendation algorithm can easily make a new movie the most-watched holiday title of the week. Predicting a streaming “hit” is less about numbers and more about anticipating which title will capture the online conversation.

As you settle in for a season of festive viewing, try making a few predictions of your own. It adds an extra layer of fun to the experience.