How to Bet on Holiday Bake-Off Championships: Technical Fails, Showstopper Saves & Finale Upsets
The ovens have cooled, the last crumbs of the finale have been swept from the tent floor, and another champion of The Great British Bake Off has been crowned. We all watched as Jasmine Mitchell, the 23-year-old medical student from Edinburgh, rightfully earned her title as the 2025 winner, with Paul Hollywood himself calling her the “best in a while.” Her five Star Baker wins and two coveted handshakes cemented her place in the show’s history. But just because the main competition is over doesn’t mean the baking drama is done for the year.
The holiday specials are just around the corner! These festive, one-off episodes are a different breed of competition. They’re faster, more chaotic, and feature celebrity bakers who might know more about delivering a dramatic line than they do about laminating dough. This creates a perfect storm of unpredictability, making it the ideal time for a friendly wager among fellow fans. While we wait for the 2025 holiday special to be announced, we can look back at last year’s epic soap star showdown to craft the perfect betting strategy.
Here’s how to turn your holiday viewing into a high-stakes (but still very cozy) event.
Know Your Bakers: From Soaps to Stardom
Unlike the main series, which features meticulously selected amateur bakers, the holiday specials throw famous faces into the tent. The 2024 Christmas special was a masterclass in this, pitting five soap opera legends against each other. The lineup included Sheree Murphy (Emmerdale, Hollyoaks), Dean Gaffney (EastEnders), Natalie Cassidy (EastEnders), Chris Bisson (Coronation Street, Emmerdale), and Shobna Gulati (Coronation Street).
This is your first and most important betting variable. You aren’t judging past baking performance; you’re betting on personality, nerve, and hidden talents. Does the actor known for playing a comedic sidekick have the focus for a complex bake? Will the soap villain crack under the pressure of a technical challenge? Before the first flour is sifted, you can place bets on who will be the most flustered, who will surprise everyone, and who will be the first to have a complete meltdown.
The Hollywood Handshake: A Rare and Valuable Bet
There is no greater currency in the tent than the Hollywood Handshake. It’s a rare honor, bestowed only upon bakes that achieve true perfection in Paul’s eyes. While a dominant series winner like Jasmine Mitchell earned two during her 2025 run, they are even more elusive in the celebrity specials, making them a thrilling subject for a bet.
In the 2024 Christmas special, Sheree Murphy received a handshake for her tiramisu yule log in the very first challenge. Paul praised its “lovely shape” and “delicious” sponge. This single moment immediately changed the odds, establishing her as the one to beat. Wagering on the handshake is a fantastic prop bet. You can bet on if a handshake will be given at all, which celebrity will earn it, and in which challenge it will occur. Given its rarity, correctly predicting a handshake is the betting equivalent of a Star Baker win.
Reading the Judges: Paul’s Praise and Prue’s Proclamations
If you want to win your betting pool, you need to listen to the judges as closely as the bakers do. Paul Hollywood and Dame Prue Leith don’t just give critiques; they drop major clues about who is leading the pack. Other times, the clues are more subtle, especially in a close race. In the 2024 Christmas special, Paul admitted the final decision between Chris Bisson and Sheree Murphy was “very close.” However, his comment that Bisson “got better and better” was a key indicator of momentum. Dame Prue was even more direct, stating that Bisson his final showstopper was “just so amazing, he has to win.” When a judge uses definitive language like “has to win” or calls a bake “perfect,” it’s time to adjust your bets.
The Challenges: Betting on Bakes and Breaks
Each of the three challenges offers unique betting opportunities. Let’s break it down using the 2024 special as our guide:
The Signature Challenge
The 2024 bakers were asked to make a festive yule log. This first bake is all about first impressions. It’s a great place to bet on who will come out of the gate strongest. Sheree Murphy’s handshake-winning tiramisu yule log immediately made her the front-runner.
The Technical Challenge
This is where the chaos and the best betting action truly begins. The 2024 technical tasked the soap stars with baking four mini meringue Christmas trees with burnt honey cream and a spiced cranberry compote. Since bakers are working from a blind recipe, it’s a true test of instinct. This is the perfect challenge to bet on who will come in last.
The Showstopper Challenge
This is the grand finale where it all comes down to ambition and execution. The 2024 showstopper was a biscuit scene depicting the bakers’ favorite festive soap moment. This led to incredible creations like Shobna Gulati’s “Fire In The Corner Shop” and Sheree Murphy’s “Trisha’s Demise,” featuring a collapsing pub. Chris Bisson sealed his victory here with a “clever,” “neat,” and “tidy” bake of carol singers. You can bet on who will win the challenge, but also on more dramatic outcomes: Will a structure collapse? Who will have the most ambitious design? Who will run out of time?
Spotting the Underdog: The Path to a Finale Upset
In a single-episode special, the winner isn’t always the person who starts the strongest; it’s the one who finishes with a flourish. This is the “finale upset” scenario. However, Chris Bisson, who had been solid but not spectacular, delivered a showstopper that was so impressive it clinched him the title. The judges noted he “got better and better,” demonstrating that momentum is everything. Unlike a regular season where a contestant like Jasmine Mitchell can dominate with five Star Baker awards, a holiday special is a sprint. Look for the baker who learns from their mistakes, takes the judges’ feedback to heart, and peaks during the showstopper. Betting on this dark horse can lead to the biggest bragging rights.
As we eagerly await the announcement of this year’s holiday bakers, now is the time to prepare. By studying the patterns from past specials, you can go into your viewing party armed with more than just festive snacks.
