How to Bet on Genre Bias in Global Award Shows

It’s that time of year again. The red carpets are rolled out, the acceptance speeches are rehearsed, and film buffs everywhere are placing their bets. But if you’re looking to get a leg up in your Oscar pool or even make a little money, looking beyond the critics’ top picks and understanding the strange world of “genre bias” can be your secret weapon.

For decades, a not-so-secret trend has dominated major award shows like the Oscars, Golden Globes, and BAFTAs: some film genres are just more likely to win than others. It’s a phenomenon that can leave fans of sci-fi, horror, and comedy scratching their heads, but for the savvy bettor, it’s a pattern that can be exploited.

The Reign of Drama

Let’s get one thing straight: when it comes to awards, drama is king. Historical epics, intense biopics, and heart-wrenching social-issue films are the darlings of awards season. Think of the kind of movie often labeled “Oscar bait” – lavishly produced period pieces with prestigious actors, tackling serious themes, and conveniently released late in the year to stay fresh in voters’ minds.

Statistics consistently back this up. Dramas make up the lion’s share of Best Picture nominations and wins at the Academy Awards. Historically, dramas have overwhelmingly dominated the Best Picture category, accounting for the vast majority of both nominations and wins. This bias is so pronounced that some have even suggested the category should be renamed “Best Drama.”

So, why the obsession with drama? It’s often perceived as more “serious” and a better showcase for an actor’s emotional range and a director’s artistic vision. It’s simply easier for voters to recognize the “craft” in a sweeping historical epic than in a tightly-scripted comedy or a visually inventive horror film.

The Overlooked and the Underdogs

On the flip side of the dramatic coin are the genres that consistently get the cold shoulder. Horror, science fiction, and comedy are frequently relegated to technical categories, if they’re recognized at all. Horror fans, in particular, often feel the sting of this bias, with critically acclaimed and culturally significant films like The Shining and Hereditary receiving no Oscar love.

While there have been notable exceptions, they are few and far between. The Silence of the Lambs is one of the rare horror films to win Best Picture, and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King is the only fantasy film to have taken home the top prize. Sci-fi has seen more nominations in recent years, especially since the expansion of the Best Picture category, but a win remains elusive.

Comedies also face an uphill battle. While films like Annie Hall and Birdman have broken through, the Academy generally seems to believe that making people laugh is less of an artistic achievement than making them cry.

How to Spot the “Oscar Bait” and Place Your Bets

Now that you understand the lay of the land, how can you use this knowledge to your advantage? It starts with identifying the films that fit the classic “Oscar bait” profile.

Key Characteristics of an Awards Contender:

• It’s a Drama: First and foremost, is the film a drama? More specifically, is it a historical drama, a biopic, or a film that tackles significant social issues? These are the genres with the most awards season pull.
• Based on a True Story: Films grounded in real events or featuring real people have a distinct advantage. Biopics are particularly potent, as they offer a clear showcase for an actor’s transformative abilities.
• Prestigious Talent: Look for films with acclaimed directors and actors who have a history of award nominations. The Academy loves to reward its own.
• Lavish Production: High production values, stunning cinematography, and a powerful musical score are all hallmarks of an awards contender.
• Year-End Release: Studios often release their most promising awards contenders in the last few months of the year to ensure they are fresh in the minds of voters.

When placing your bets, it’s not just about picking the “best” film, but the film that best fits the mold of what the Academy tends to reward. While an action blockbuster or a laugh-out-loud comedy might have won over audiences and critics alike, a well-made historical drama is often the safer bet for the top awards.

A Shift on the Horizon?

While the dramatic bias is still very much a reality, there are signs that things may be slowly changing. The expansion of the Best Picture category has allowed for a more diverse range of genres to be nominated. And recent wins for films like Everything Everywhere All at Once and Parasite show that voters are becoming more open to unconventional and genre-bending stories.

However, for the time being, the smart money is still on drama. So, as you fill out your ballot, take a moment to consider the genre. It might just be the key to winning your office pool and earning some serious bragging rights.