How to Bet on Dual Nominees: When One Star Is in Two Categories

Awards season is a truly special time of year for film lovers. It’s a glittering whirlwind of red carpets, emotional acceptance speeches, dazzling fashion, and for many of us, a fun opportunity to place a few friendly wagers. While betting on the big categories like Best Picture or Best Director is standard fare, a more intriguing and deliciously complex scenario arises when a single star has a year so phenomenal that they land in two different acting categories at once.

This is the “dual nominee” phenomenon, a rare honor bestowed upon an actor who has delivered two distinct, brilliant performances in a single year. Think of Scarlett Johansson in 2020, earning nominations for Best Actress in Marriage Story and Best Supporting Actress in Jojo Rabbit. Or go back to 2005, when Jamie Foxx was the talk of the town, up for Best Actor for his transformative role in Ray and Best Supporting Actor for his chilling turn in Collateral.

On the surface, this seems like a gambler’s dream: two shots on goal, double the chances for glory. But for the savvy bettor, it presents a fascinating puzzle. Does it really double their odds, or does it split the vote and paradoxically ruin their chances? Let’s dive deep into the strategy of betting on these doubly-blessed stars.

The Double-Edged Sword of a Dual Nomination

When an actor receives two nominations in a single year, it’s a massive testament to their talent and a clear signal of a banner year for their career. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences even has specific rules governing this situation: an actor can’t be nominated twice for the same performance, nor can they receive two nominations in the same category. This means they must be recognized for a lead role in one film and a supporting role in another, a feat that showcases incredible range and a tireless work ethic.

For a gambler, this creates a unique and tantalizing situation. Your first instinct might be to think, “Wow, they’re so beloved this year, they’re a shoo-in to win at least one of them!” And that’s a perfectly fair assumption. But the reality is much more complicated. You aren’t just betting on pure talent; you’re betting on the collective psychology of thousands of Academy voters. Does the double nomination signal an undeniable sweep, a coronation for the actor of the year? Or does it create a paradox of choice that leads to a frustrating shutout? This is where a little history and strategic thinking come into play.

A Quick Look at the History Books

To figure out our strategy, we need to look at the past. In the nearly century-long history of the Academy Awards, only a dozen actors have achieved the rare feat of being nominated for two acting awards in the same year. The first was Fay Bainter way back in 1938, and the most recent was Scarlett Johansson in 2020.

Here’s the single most important statistic for any bettor to memorize: No actor has ever won two competitive acting Oscars in the same year.

This historical precedent is the absolute cornerstone of our betting strategy. Betting on a dual nominee to win both their categories is, historically speaking, a surefire way to lose your money. The data is clear: it just doesn’t happen.

The “Vote-Splitting” Theory Explained

So why does this happen? The most popular and logical theory is “vote-splitting.” Academy voters, who are peers of the nominees, might be so impressed by both of the actor’s performances that they can’t decide which one is more deserving. In the Best Actress category, a voter might think, “Well, her lead performance in Film A was a tour de force, but I also adored her in Film B, where she’s up for Supporting Actress. I think I’ll vote for her in the supporting category instead.” Meanwhile, another voter, equally impressed, does the exact opposite.

This internal debate, multiplied across thousands of ballots, can dilute the actor’s support in both categories. It can lead to a scenario where they have a very strong showing in both races – perhaps finishing second or third in each – but don’t secure enough number-one votes in either category to actually win. Some voters may also feel that the prestige of two nominations is a victory in itself and choose to “spread the wealth” by voting for other talented performers who only have one shot at the gold that year. It’s a psychological game as much as it is a race of talent.

Crafting Your Betting Strategy

Knowing that a double win is almost certainly off the table and a double loss is a very real possibility, how do you place your bets intelligently? Here are a few relaxed strategies to guide you.

Pick One and Stick With It

The most straightforward approach is to analyze the two races and bet on the actor to win just one of their nominated categories. The history is clear: avoid any prop bet or parlay that requires them to win both. Your job is to become a detective and figure out which of the two performances has more momentum and a clearer path to victory. Look at the competition in each category. Is one category significantly weaker than the other? Is one of the films a Best Picture frontrunner, which can create a “coattail effect” for its actors? These factors are crucial.

The “Supporting” Safety Net

Historically, when a dual nominee does win, they have a slight tendency to triumph in the Best Supporting category. Fay Bainter, Teresa Wright, and Jessica Lange were all nominated for both Lead and Supporting and won the latter. This isn’t a foolproof rule – Al Pacino and Holly Hunter won for their lead roles – but there seems to be a recurring pattern of voters choosing to award the “lesser” of the two prizes.

Ultimately, betting on a dual nominee is one of the more exciting challenges in entertainment gambling. It requires you to think less like a film critic and more like a political strategist. By understanding the history, considering the psychology of the voters, and watching the precursor awards, you can make an informed bet and have a little extra something to root for on Oscar night.