How to Bet on Critics Choice Super Awards Underdogs: Spotting Surprise Wins in Overlooked Categories

The Critics Choice Super Awards, an annual event dedicated to honoring the best in genre film and television, has carved out a unique space in the awards season landscape. By design, the ceremony shines a spotlight on action, superhero, horror, science fiction, fantasy, and animation—genres often overlooked by more traditional awards bodies. This focus on fan-favorite and genre-specific content creates fertile ground for savvy bettors looking to capitalize on undervalued contenders and potential upsets. While the Goliaths of the box office often dominate the nominations, a closer look at the “overlooked categories” can reveal surprise wins and significant payouts.

Where Critics and Audiences Meet

The Critics Choice Association, comprised of hundreds of media critics and entertainment journalists, votes on these awards. However, the very nature of the genres celebrated means there’s often a closer alignment with audience enthusiasm than seen in more “prestigious” awards. This creates a fascinating dynamic for betting. While a critically acclaimed but lesser-seen indie horror film might have a shot, a crowd-pleasing blockbuster with a passionate fanbase can’t be counted out.

Unlike mainstream awards shows where critics might favor slower, art-house films, the Super Awards are designed to celebrate the “brilliance, creativity, and artistic excellence” within popular genres. This can lead to situations where a film with massive popular appeal but mixed critical reception can triumph.

Identifying Potential Underdogs

Spotting an underdog requires moving beyond the most-hyped nominees. Here are some strategies to consider:

Look for Critical Darlings in Niche Categories

While a big-budget superhero film might be the favorite for Best Superhero Movie, the acting categories can be more unpredictable. A standout performance in a smaller, critically-acclaimed genre film could surprise. For instance, in the inaugural awards, the quirky time-loop comedy Palm Springs took home three awards, including Best Science Fiction/Fantasy Movie and acting awards for Andy Samberg and Cristin Milioti, a significant showing for a smaller film.

Don’t Underestimate the Power of a Sweep

Sometimes, a show or film captures the zeitgeist so completely that it dominates its categories. In 2024, The Last of Us swept all seven of its nominated television categories, a remarkable feat that demonstrates how a single, beloved property can become an unstoppable force. Identifying a show with this level of broad support early on can lead to profitable betting across multiple categories.

Consider the “Villain” Categories

The “Best Villain” categories for both film and television are often among the most interesting and unpredictable. These awards can honor a performance that is scene-stealing and memorable, even if the film or show itself isn’t a frontrunner in other categories. Antony Starr’s dual wins for The Boys in 2021 for Best Actor in a Superhero Series and Best Villain in a Series highlight how a single, powerful performance can be recognized.

Analyze the Nominations for Patterns

Pay close attention to the full list of nominees each year. Are there any films or shows that have received multiple nominations across different categories? This can be an indicator of broad support among the voting body. For example, at the 3rd annual awards, Everything Everywhere All at Once secured three wins, including Best Science Fiction/Fantasy Movie, a precursor to its subsequent Oscar glory. This suggests that even in a field of genre films, a truly exceptional and innovative work can rise to the top.

Overlooked Categories and Finding Value

The real value in betting on the Critics Choice Super Awards often lies in the less publicized categories. While Best Superhero Movie might have clear favorites with short odds, the acting and series categories can offer more lucrative opportunities. For example, betting on a standout performance in a horror series might yield a better return than betting on the odds-on favorite for Best Action Movie.

Case Studies in Potential Upsets

While it can be difficult to definitively label a win an “upset”, we can look at past results for inspiration. The win for Palm Springs in the first awards ceremony over more traditional sci-fi fare could be seen as an early indicator of the Super Awards’ potential for surprises. Similarly, the recognition of Mia Goth for both Best Actress in a Horror Movie and Best Villain for Pearl and X at the 3rd annual awards, despite being snubbed by the Oscars, shows that the Super Awards are willing to reward performances that other awards bodies might ignore.

As you prepare to place your bets on the next Critics Choice Super Awards, remember to look beyond the obvious. Analyze the full slate of nominations, consider the unique position of the awards at the intersection of critical and audience acclaim, and don’t be afraid to take a chance on a compelling underdog. In the world of genre entertainment, the most passionate and well-crafted stories often come from the most unexpected places.