How to Bet on Categories That Have Changed Criteria or Voting Rules

For years, savvy gamblers have relied on historical data, precursor awards, and industry opinions to make their picks. But what happens when the rulebook is rewritten?

Major awards bodies like the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (Oscars), the Golden Globes, and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) have recently introduced significant changes to their voting criteria, eligibility requirements, and even their voting bodies. These shifts create both uncertainty and opportunity, demanding a new level of analysis from anyone looking to place a smart wager.

A Breakdown of Key Changes

The last few years have seen a wave of reforms across the major awards ceremonies, driven by calls for greater diversity, transparency, and relevance. To bet effectively, one must first understand the specific nature of these changes.

The Oscars’ Overhaul

Diversity and Mandatory Viewing: The Academy has implemented some of the most talked-about changes. Beginning with the 96th Oscars in 2024, films vying for Best Picture must meet two of four new diversity and inclusion standards. These standards, inspired by similar rules from BAFTA, address representation in areas such as on-screen talent, creative leadership, crew composition, and even marketing and distribution teams. For a film to be eligible, it might need a lead actor from an underrepresented group, a main storyline focused on such a group, or to meet certain diversity thresholds in its crew and studio internships.

Furthermore, starting with the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, a monumental shift in voting procedure will take effect: members must now watch all nominated films within a category to be eligible to vote for a winner in that category. This rule, verified through the Academy’s official screening platform, aims to eliminate uninformed voting and ensure every nominee gets a fair look, a response to past admissions from voters that they hadn’t seen all contenders. The Academy is also introducing new categories, including an award for Achievement in Casting, which will debut at the 98th Oscars.

The Golden Globes’ New Identity

Following significant controversy over a lack of diversity and ethical concerns, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) was dissolved and the Golden Globes were acquired by new ownership. This has led to a dramatic expansion and diversification of the voting body. What was once a small group of around 85 HFPA members is now a body of over 300 international journalists from more than 75 countries. This new group is significantly more diverse, with a stated 60% of voters being racially and ethnically diverse.

BAFTA’s Evolving Process

The BAFTAs have also been proactive in updating their rules to promote diversity and fairness. They expanded several key categories, including Outstanding British Film, to ten nominees to allow for a wider range of films to be considered. Their voting process has become a multi-stage affair involving chapter voting, jury selections, and then a final vote by the entire membership, a system designed to balance expert opinion with broader member consensus. Recently, BAFTA also handed full voting power in its international TV category to its entire 6,000-strong membership, scrapping the previous jury-led process.

Strategic Adjustments for the Modern Bettor

These new rules disrupt old patterns and require a recalibration of betting strategies. Historical data, while still useful, can no longer be the sole guide. Here’s how to adapt:

1. Re-evaluating “Best Picture” Contenders

The Oscars’ new inclusion standards for Best Picture are a game-changer. While many major studio films will likely meet these criteria without issue, it adds a new layer of analysis.

Look Beyond the Obvious

A film’s adherence to these standards is now a baseline for eligibility, not necessarily a predictor of a win. However, films that authentically and powerfully center on underrepresented stories and communities may now have a more direct path to consideration and nomination.

The “Why” Matters

Don’t just check boxes. Consider how a film meets the standards. A film with a deeply integrated and celebrated diverse cast and creative team is likely to resonate more with the modernized Academy than one that appears to have met the criteria as an afterthought.

Theatrical Requirements

The Academy has also reinforced the importance of a robust theatrical run for Best Picture eligibility, a move seen as a counter-measure to the rise of streaming-first releases. This could favor films with strong box office performance and traditional distribution models.

2. The Impact of a More Diverse, Global Voting Body

The expansion and diversification of the Golden Globes and, to a lesser extent, the Academy and BAFTA, has profound implications.

International Appeal is Key

With more international voters than ever, films with global themes, international casts, or non-American perspectives may see a boost. The success of foreign-language films like Parasite was a precursor to this trend. A film’s performance at international festivals like Cannes or Venice becomes an even more critical indicator.

Less Susceptible to “Hollywood” Narratives

A larger, more diverse body is less likely to be swayed by traditional Hollywood narratives like a star being “overdue” for a win. Merit and global resonance may take precedence over industry politics. The new Golden Globes voters, for instance, are seen as having more “gravitas” and are less likely to simply award the most famous person in the room.

Unpredictability at BAFTA

Opening the international TV category to all BAFTA members could lead to more unpredictable, populist winners rather than niche, jury-selected champions. This “democratization” of the vote means that buzz and broad appeal are more important than ever.

3. The “Mandatory Viewing” Effect and New Categories

The Academy’s rule requiring voters to watch all nominees is perhaps the most intriguing new variable.

Leveling the Playing Field

This change could significantly benefit smaller, less-hyped films. In the past, a film with a massive marketing budget could dominate the conversation, while quieter films were overlooked. Now, every nominee is guaranteed an audience with the voters. This could lead to more surprise wins in craft categories and even major awards.

The Rise of the Underdog

Bettors should pay closer attention to critical darlings and festival award winners that secure nominations, even if they lack mainstream buzz. Their odds might be long, but their chances of an upset have increased. Previously, voters might have defaulted to the most well-known nominee; now, a powerful but lesser-seen film has a real shot at winning them over.

In this new era of awards betting, the playing field has changed, and for the informed bettor, the race is more exciting than ever.