How to Bet on Boxing Day Box Office: Holiday Holdovers, New Openers & New Year’s Legs

The holiday season is synonymous with family, festive cheer, and for movie lovers, a trip to the local cinema. The week between Christmas and New Year’s is consistently one of the most lucrative periods for the film industry, as audiences with time off seek entertainment on the big screen. This makes the Boxing Day box office, the haul from December 26^th, a particularly exciting battleground. For those who enjoy placing a friendly wager on which films will triumph, this time of year offers a fascinating puzzle. With a major blockbuster set to dominate, the real question becomes how it will perform and what, if anything, will dare to challenge it. December 2025 is shaping up to be a test of a single film’s power to command the entire holiday market.

Getting a Feel for the Holiday Movie Field

The end-of-year movie slate is a carefully curated collection of a studio’s biggest hopes. Based on the current release schedule, December 2025 is all about one movie: Avatar 3. Landing in theaters on December 19th, the third installment in James Cameron’s record-shattering saga is positioned to be the undisputed champion of the season. As a sequel to the two highest-grossing films of all time, its dominance is almost a given. However, the holiday season is rarely a one-horse race. Studios often hold back on announcing their Christmas Day releases until later in the year. This means that while Avatar 3 is the only titan we see on the calendar right now, it’s wise to anticipate a last-minute challenger, likely a family-friendly film, to be announced.

The Strength of the Holiday Holdover

A “holdover” is a film that has already been in theaters for at least a week. For the Boxing Day race, the most important holdover is the one that opened the weekend before Christmas. This year, that is Avatar 3. By the time December 26th arrives, we will have a full week of performance data. To make an informed bet, you’ll want to scrutinize its opening weekend numbers. Did it meet, exceed, or fall short of the astronomical expectations? You should also pay close attention to the critical reviews and, more importantly, the audience scores (like CinemaScore). A film from director James Cameron is an event, but if audiences aren’t as captivated this time, its second-week performance could be softer than anticipated. Conversely, if it delivers another universally loved spectacle, it could steamroll the competition well into January.

Evaluating the Unannounced Contenders

Opening a film on Christmas Day is a high-risk, high-reward strategy known as counter-programming. While Avatar 3 will attract teens and adults with its epic sci-fi action, another studio will almost certainly release a film that offers a completely different experience. This is the movie to watch. It will likely be an animated feature, a broad comedy, or a musical aimed squarely at families with children who are out of school. When this film is eventually announced, your betting strategy should be to evaluate its potential appeal. Does it feature beloved characters? Is it from a studio with a strong track record in animation, like Illumination or DreamWorks? The key is to gauge whether this yet-to-be-named challenger has enough brand recognition and family appeal to carve out a sizable piece of the box office pie from the Na’vi.

The “Legs” Factor: A Film’s Staying Power

In box office terminology, “legs” refers to a movie’s ability to maintain strong ticket sales week after week. The holiday corridor is where films can grow some seriously long legs. A movie that opens big and then vanishes is considered “front-loaded,” while one that keeps drawing crowds has “legs.” This is where word-of-mouth becomes critical. A film that delights audiences on Christmas and Boxing Day will benefit from positive buzz throughout the entire vacation week. Any family film that opens on Christmas will be counting on this phenomenon to succeed. Avatar 3, being an event film, might be more front-loaded as die-hard fans rush out to see it immediately. However, its sheer scale and visual splendor could give it legs of its own. When betting, don’t just think about the single-day gross; consider which film has the better outlook for the entire holiday week.

Watching for Sleepers and Prestige Plays

While the battle for the top spot will be defined by Avatar 3 and its eventual challenger, the holiday season is also when studios release their awards contenders in limited runs. These “prestige pictures” often open in just a few theaters in New York and Los Angeles to qualify for the Oscars before expanding nationwide in January. While they won’t crack the top five on the overall box office chart, they can generate incredible per-theater averages. For bettors looking for a different angle, wagering on which of these smaller films will have the highest per-theater average can be a rewarding challenge. Keep an eye out for announcements of smaller, critically acclaimed dramas or indie darlings getting a late-December release, as they are a staple of the season.

Predicting the Boxing Day box office champion is a fun way to engage with the year’s final slate of films. No matter the outcome, the real win is getting to enjoy the diverse and exciting movies that light up the screen during the holiday season.