How to Bet on Best New Series vs. Ongoing Hits in the Same Season

The world of television awards, particularly the prestigious Emmy Awards, offers a unique and increasingly popular betting market for enthusiasts looking to add a layer of excitement to their viewing experience.

One of the most compelling narratives each awards season is the battle between the breakout new series and the established, ongoing hits. This clash of the new and the familiar presents a fascinating challenge for bettors. Do you back the fresh-faced ingenue that has captured the cultural zeitgeist, or do you place your faith in the seasoned veteran with a proven track record of critical acclaim?

Navigating this landscape requires a blend of research, strategic thinking, and an understanding of how awards voters think.

The Allure of the New

History has shown that Emmy voters are not afraid to reward a groundbreaking first season. Shows like Mad Men, The West Wing, and Homeland all took home the award for Outstanding Drama Series in their debut seasons. More recently, the phenomenon continues with shows like The White Lotus and Shōgun achieving significant wins early in their runs. This trend highlights a key factor for bettors: the power of the “new.”

Several factors contribute to the success of a first-season show:

The Buzz Factor

A new series that generates significant conversation, critical acclaim, and cultural impact can be hard for voters to ignore. Shows that feel fresh, innovative, and timely often have a momentum that established shows, even great ones, can struggle to match.

Narrative Completion

A strong debut season often presents a complete and satisfying narrative arc. This can leave a more powerful impression on voters than a single season of a longer, ongoing story.

The “It” Show

Every year, a few new shows become the “it” series that everyone is talking about. This widespread attention, fueled by social media and critical praise, can create a bandwagon effect among voters.

When betting on a new series, it’s crucial to look for these signs.

• Is the show a topic of constant discussion?
• Has it received near-universal critical acclaim?
• Does it feel like a significant moment in television?

If the answer to these questions is yes, you may have a strong contender on your hands.

The Case for the Ongoing Hit

While new shows bring excitement, betting against a beloved, ongoing series can be a risky proposition. Established shows have a built-in advantage: a history with the voters. Shows like Succession, Frasier, and Modern Family have dominated their respective categories for multiple seasons.

Here’s why ongoing hits often remain on top:

Proven Quality

A show that has won before, or has been consistently nominated, has already proven its quality to the Television Academy. Voters know what they are getting, and it’s often a safe and respectable choice.

Voter Habits

Emmy voters, like many people, can be creatures of habit. They have their favorite shows and may be inclined to stick with what they know and love, especially when a handful of popular shows can dominate the nominations.

The “Last Chance” Narrative

For a critically acclaimed show in its final season, there is often a powerful narrative to award it one last time as a recognition of its overall legacy. This was a significant factor in the final season wins for shows like Breaking Bad.

When considering a bet on an ongoing series, look at its nomination history.

• Is it a consistent favorite?
• Is it in its final season with a strong critical reception?
• Does it still get a lot of attention?

A “yes” to these questions can indicate a strong bet.

Developing Your Betting Strategy

A smart betting strategy involves more than just picking your favorite show. It requires careful analysis of the odds and the broader awards landscape.

Key Strategic Considerations:

Consider the Competition: It’s not just about the quality of one show, but how it stacks up against the other nominees. A brilliant new series might face an established hit in its final, critically lauded season, making for a tough race. Conversely, a weaker field of ongoing shows could open the door for a strong newcomer.

Look for Value in Underdogs: Sometimes, the overwhelming favorite is priced so high that the return on a bet is minimal. In these cases, it can be worth looking at a strong underdog with longer odds.

Network and Platform Influence: The network or streaming platform behind a show can play a role. Juggernauts like HBO and Netflix have a long history of successful awards campaigns and consistently produce high-quality, nominated content.

By doing your research, following the awards season narrative, and thinking strategically about the odds, you can make informed bets and enhance your enjoyment of television’s biggest night.