Historic Trends at the Logies: What Bettors Should Know

The TV WEEK Logie Awards, often dubbed “television’s night of nights” in Australia, represent a unique intersection of public opinion and industry recognition. For those looking to place a wager on the outcomes, particularly the coveted Gold Logie for Most Popular Personality on Australian Television, understanding historic trends can be invaluable. While popularity is notoriously fickle, a look back at past winners reveals several patterns that might offer an edge.

The Reign of Familiar Faces

Historically, the Gold Logie has frequently been awarded to personalities who are mainstays on Australian television, often hosts or presenters of popular programmes, rather than solely actors in episodic dramas or comedies. The TV WEEK Gold Logie is awarded to the Best Personality on Australian television as voted by the public. Over the years it has been awarded to a number of talented Australian presenters and actors.

Looking at winners from 2006 to 2024, a significant number are presenters or hosts. Karl Stefanovic (Today, 2011), Hamish Blake (Hamish & Andy’s Gap Year, 2012; Lego Masters, 2022), Scott Cam (The Block, 2014), Carrie Bickmore (The Project, 2015), Waleed Aly (The Project, 2016), Grant Denyer (Family Feud, 2018), Tom Gleeson (Hard Quiz, 2019), Sonia Kruger (various hosting roles, 2023), and Larry Emdur (various hosting roles, 2024) all fit this mould. This suggests that daily or weekly visibility in a hosting capacity, allowing a personality to connect directly with the audience, can be a strong factor.

Actors who win often come from long-running, highly popular dramas. Examples include John Wood (Blue Heelers, 2006), Kate Ritchie (Home And Away, 2007, 2008), Rebecca Gibney (Packed To The Rafters, 2009), Ray Meagher (Home And Away, 2010), and Asher Keddie (Offspring, 2013). Samuel Johnson’s win in 2017 for the mini-series Molly is a slight outlier here, though it was for portraying a very well-known Australian music personality.

What this means for bettors: Consider personalities with significant screen time in roles that create a direct connection with viewers. Hosts of popular reality shows, morning television, and current affairs programmes often have an advantage. Actors in beloved, long-running series also stand a strong chance.

Network Dominance and Shifts

The commercial free-to-air networks have traditionally dominated the Gold Logie wins.

• Seven Network:John Wood (2006), Kate Ritchie (2007, 2008), Rebecca Gibney (2009), Ray Meagher (2010), Samuel Johnson (2017), Sonia Kruger (2023), Larry Emdur (2024).
• Nine Network:Karl Stefanovic (2011), Hamish Blake (2012, 2022), Scott Cam (2014).
• Network Ten:Asher Keddie (2013), Carrie Bickmore (2015), Waleed Aly (2016), Grant Denyer (2018).

The ABC broke through with Tom Gleeson’s win for Hard Quiz in 2019, a significant moment for the public broadcaster. This indicates that while commercial networks have a strong track record, compelling personalities on other platforms can gain enough public traction. The rise of streaming services has yet to translate into a Gold Logie win for a personality primarily known for a streaming-only show, though actors from these platforms are increasingly nominated for other Logies.

What this means for bettors: While Seven, Nine, and Ten have historically been strong contenders, don’t discount popular personalities from the ABC, especially if they have a high-profile, engaging show. The landscape is slowly diversifying.

The Power of the Narrative and Campaign

Sometimes, a Gold Logie win is propelled by a compelling narrative or a particularly effective public campaign. Carrie Bickmore’s 2015 win was accompanied by a powerful speech launching her “Beanies for Brain Cancer” charity, which resonated deeply with the public. Tom Gleeson’s 2019 win was, in part, due to a satirical and highly effective campaign he ran himself, essentially lampooning the award while actively seeking it.

What this means for bettors: Look beyond just the show or the role. Is there a broader story or public sentiment surrounding a nominee? Are they actively and cleverly engaging with the public vote? This “X-factor” can sometimes sway the outcome.

Repeat Winners and Longevity

The Logies have a history of rewarding familiar faces multiple times. Kate Ritchie won back-to-back Gold Logies in 2007 and 2008. Hamish Blake secured his second Gold Logie in 2022, a decade after his first in 2012. This demonstrates that once a personality has achieved Gold Logie-winning status, they remain strong contenders in subsequent years if their popularity endures.

What this means for bettors: Previous winners who remain prominent and popular should always be considered strong candidates. The public has a tendency to stick with their favourites.

Conclusion for Bettors

While predicting any publicly voted award carries inherent uncertainty, analysing past Gold Logie trends offers valuable insights. Bettors should favour presenters and hosts of popular, high-visibility programmes, particularly on commercial networks, though ABC personalities are increasingly competitive. Actors from long-standing, beloved dramas also have a strong track record. Keep an eye on compelling personal narratives, effective public campaigns, and the enduring appeal of past winners. As the television landscape evolves, these trends may shift, but for now, history provides a useful guide for those looking to make an informed bet on Australian television’s biggest night.