Eurovision 2025 Betting Guide: How to Wager on the Winner, Wild Cards & More

The sequins are polished, the wind machines are at the ready, and the stage is set in Basel, Switzerland, for the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2025 this Saturday, 17th May. With the semi-finals now concluded, 26 countries are vying for the coveted glass microphone. For many, the thrill of Eurovision is heightened by a friendly wager. This guide will navigate you through the most popular betting markets, offer tips for spotting a potential champion, and highlight some intriguing “wild card” bets.

What to Bet on

Before diving in, it’s essential to grasp the common ways you can bet on Eurovision:

• Outright Winner: This is the most straightforward bet – simply picking which country you believe will win the entire contest. Odds are available well in advance and will fluctuate based on rehearsals, semi-final performances, and public buzz.
• Top 3/5/10 Finish: If you’re less certain about an outright winner but confident a country will perform well, you can bet on them to finish in the top 3, top 5, or top 10.
• Jury Winner vs. Televote Winner: Eurovision results are decided by a 50/50 split between national juries (music industry professionals) and public televoting. Some bookmakers offer markets on who will win each of these individual votes. Historically, juries might favour strong vocals and musicality, while televoters can be swayed by memorable staging, catchy tunes, or even political/diaspora voting.
• Country Match Bets (Head-to-Head): This involves betting on one specific country to finish higher on the leaderboard than another.
• Regional Winner: Some bookies offer odds on the best-performing country from a specific region, such as “Top Nordic Country” or “Top Baltic Country”.
• Last Place: For a more light-hearted (or perhaps pessimistic) punt, you can bet on which country will unfortunately finish at the bottom of the scoreboard.

The Grand Finalists: Who to Watch

The Grand Final line-up is now complete. The “Big Five” (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom) and host country Switzerland automatically qualified. They are joined by 20 qualifiers from the two semi-finals.

From Semi-Final 1: Iceland, Albania, Estonia, Ukraine, Norway, Poland, Sweden, Portugal, San Marino, and The Netherlands.

From Semi-Final 2: Latvia, Armenia, Austria, Greece, Lithuania, Malta, Denmark, Luxembourg, Israel, and Finland.

The semi-finals saw some surprising non-qualifications, with Australia’s Go-Jo and Ireland (a record seven-time winner) failing to make the cut. These results can sometimes shift the betting landscape, perhaps boosting the chances of acts with similar styles who did qualify.

Tips for Wagering on the Winner

Picking the Eurovision winner is a blend of art and science. Here are some pointers:

• Listen to the Songs & Watch Performances: This is paramount. A catchy song with a memorable and well-executed live performance is key. Staging, vocals, and overall impact are crucial.
• Follow Rehearsal Buzz: Reports and snippets from rehearsals can offer early clues as to which acts are impressing and whose odds might be shortening. Staging concepts unveiled during rehearsals can dramatically alter a song’s chances.
• Track the Odds: Keep an eye on how bookmakers’ odds are changing. Significant shifts can indicate growing confidence or concerns about an entry. Sweden and Austria are currently strong favourites according to many bookmakers.
• Consider Voting Patterns & Geopolitics: While musical merit is the aim, regional voting blocs and diaspora votes can sometimes influence televoting results. However, juries can counterbalance this.
• Check Fan Polls & Expert Opinions: Fan communities and Eurovision experts often have their fingers on the pulse and their predictions can be insightful.
• Running Order: Performing later in the Grand Final is often considered advantageous for attracting televotes.

Eyeing the Wild Cards and Other Bets

While favourites like Sweden and Austria are dominating discussions, there’s always room for a surprise.

• Identifying Dark Horses: Look for countries that performed strongly in the semi-finals but weren’t initially hyped. Estonia’s “Espresso Macchiato” is being touted by some as a potential televote dark horse. Albania has also been mentioned as a potential surprise package if their staging is strong.
• Top Big Five: A specific market often available is predicting which of the “Big Five” countries will achieve the highest placing.
• Novelty Bets: Some bookmakers may offer more unusual bets, such as the total points a country will receive or if any country will receive the dreaded “nul points.”

Current Betting Landscape

As mentioned, Sweden is widely considered the favourite to win, and Austria is seen as the second favourite. France, Netherlands, Finland, and Israel have also featured prominently in the top tier of betting odds. The Netherlands reportedly climbed to third favourite after a strong semi-final showing. Estonia is noted as a potential dark horse, particularly for the televote.

The Eurovision Song Contest 2025 Grand Final promises a night of dazzling performances and nail-biting results. Whether you’re placing a bet or simply enjoying the spectacle, may the best song win!