Emmy Longshots That Could Surprise: Dark Horses Worth Backing in 2025

As the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards draw near, the television landscape is filled with predictions. While established favorites like Severance and The White Lotus are expected to lead the drama categories, and The Bear and Hacks continue to perform strongly in comedy, the most interesting developments often come from unexpected nominations. This year, several critically praised but lower-profile shows and performances may find themselves in the spotlight. From stylish thrillers to unusual period comedies, here are a few longshots that could make an impact at the 2025 Emmys.

Dramatic Contenders Waiting in the Wings

The drama categories are fiercely competitive, but several less-heralded series have delivered powerful narratives that could break through. One such contender is Monsieur Spade, a stylish and intelligent update on the classic noir character Sam Spade. Featuring a magnetic lead performance by Clive Owen, the series has been praised for its sharp dialogue, beautiful French setting, and confident, unhurried pacing. While some found the initial episodes slow, the series builds into a compelling mystery that could charm voters looking for smart, adult-oriented drama.

Another potential surprise is Sugar, starring Colin Farrell as a private investigator searching for a missing woman in Los Angeles. While it begins as a classic, genre-bending L.A. noir, the series takes a significant and shocking plot twist midway through that redefines its narrative. Brian Tyree Henry also delivers a noteworthy performance in the series. This daring storytelling, combined with Farrell’s compelling portrayal of a man grappling with his own demons, could make Sugar a memorable contender in a crowded field.

Meanwhile, A Gentleman in Moscow might be considered a long shot despite its pedigree. Led by Ewan McGregor and Mary Elizabeth Winstead, the adaptation of Amor Towles’s beloved novel is a sweeping historical drama. While the show was submitted for Emmy consideration, it has struggled to capture the same level of interest as other limited series. However, its lavish production, strong performances, and heartfelt story of finding family in unlikely circumstances could still win over a segment of the Television Academy.

The Rise of the Understated and Offbeat Comedy

While major hits command the comedy spotlight, several other series have been quietly building devoted followings and critical acclaim. A prime example is The Decameron, a period dramedy set during the Black Death in 14th-century Italy. With its unique premise, dark humor, and a talented ensemble cast that includes Zosia Mamet and Tony Hale, this “wine-soaked sex romp” could be the kind of audacious and original series that voters are eager to reward.

Another show that has flown under the radar is the final season of What We Do in the Shadows. Though a consistent critical darling, the vampire mockumentary has often been overshadowed by other comedies at the Emmys. Its final outing, which mixes up character dynamics and explores surprisingly emotional storylines, could finally earn it the major recognition fans feel it has long deserved.

Standout Performances That Demand Recognition

Beyond the series themselves, several individual performances in less-talked-about shows are deserving of Emmy consideration. In the series Happy Face, Annaleigh Ashford delivers a powerful performance as Melissa Moore, the real-life daughter of the “Happy Face Killer,” played by Dennis Quaid. The series, based on Moore’s podcast and autobiography, explores the profound trauma and guilt experienced by the family of a serial killer. Ashford’s complex portrayal of a woman forced to confront her father’s horrific legacy is the kind of tour-de-force performance that voters often gravitate towards.

In the limited series Dying for Sex, Michelle Williams gives a devastatingly emotional performance as Molly, a woman who explores her sexuality for the first time after a terminal cancer diagnosis. Based on a true story, the series has already garnered Emmy buzz for its raw and honest depiction of life, love, and friendship in the face of death. Williams, a five-time Oscar nominee, is a formidable contender, and her co-star Jenny Slate has also received praise for her supporting role as Molly’s best friend.

As the Emmy nominations are announced, it will be fascinating to see which of these longshots manage to break through the noise. While the frontrunners may seem secure, the history of the Emmys is filled with surprising and well-deserved wins for the underdogs. These dark horse contenders represent the depth and breadth of quality television being produced today. This year is shaping up to be no exception, with a host of talented performers and innovative shows ready to claim their well-earned moment in the spotlight.