2026 SAG Award Nomination Predictions: Ensemble Favorites and Acting Standouts

As the curtain falls on another year of cinema, your attention naturally pivots to the upcoming awards season. Among the most telling of these ceremonies are the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, where actors honor their own. A nomination here is a unique validation from your peers, a sign that a performance or a collective effort truly resonated within the craft. With the 32nd annual ceremony set to stream live on Netflix on March 1, 2026, the speculation machine is already in high gear. You’re likely starting to build your own list of contenders, and as you look ahead, a fascinating slate of films from 2025 is poised to dominate the conversation. From sprawling casts to deeply transformative individual roles, the field is rich with potential.

Outstanding Cast Contenders

The award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture is often the most exciting race, celebrating the alchemy of a group of actors firing on all cylinders. For 2026, you have several films with the kind of star-studded, deeply integrated casts that voters love.

Look no further than Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly, a dramedy featuring George Clooney as a disillusioned movie star on a trip through Europe with his manager, played by Adam Sandler. The film boasts a staggering lineup that includes Laura Dern, Billy Crudup, and Greta Gerwig. With its meta-commentary on the film business and a story centered on friendship, you can see why this ensemble is a major talking point.

Then there’s Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, a genre-bending horror film set in the 1930s Jim Crow South. Michael B. Jordan takes on the demanding dual role of twin brothers who confront a supernatural evil. The cast surrounding him is equally formidable, with Delroy Lindo and Hailee Steinfeld lending their talents to this ambitious project. The film’s blend of history and horror provides a unique platform for its actors to shine collectively. You should also keep an eye on Paul Thomas Anderson’s action thriller One Battle After Another. The film stars Leonardo DiCaprio as a washed-up revolutionary whose past comes back to haunt him. The ensemble includes Sean Penn and Regina Hall, promising a story grounded by powerful performances.

Male Actor Predictions

The race for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role is going to be a battle of transformative performances. You have Dwayne Johnson in a role that could redefine his career in Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine. Johnson portrays MMA fighter Mark Kerr, exploring his rise to stardom and his struggles with addiction. Early looks and festival reactions praise his dramatic turn, noting a stunning physical and emotional transformation.

You can also anticipate strong competition from actors embodying real-life figures. Jeremy Allen White stars as Bruce Springsteen in Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, which chronicles the creation of the iconic 1982 album Nebraska. The role required White to take on Springsteen’s distinct voice and musicality, a challenge that often attracts awards attention. Similarly, Timothée Chalamet steps into the world of competitive table tennis in Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme, playing a character loosely inspired by a ping pong legend. The film, set for a Christmas release, is positioned as a major contender. Meanwhile, Leonardo DiCaprio is earning praise for his role in One Battle After Another, playing a paranoid, off-grid former radical.

Female Actor Predictions

For Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role, the conversation is heavily focused on Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet. Jessie Buckley delivers a performance that has been described as “sensational” for her portrayal of Agnes Shakespeare, William Shakespeare’s wife. The film, based on Maggie O’Farrell’s novel, explores their relationship and the profound grief following the death of their son. Buckley’s performance, which won the top prize at the Toronto International Film Festival, is praised for its raw emotion and non-verbal power, making her a clear frontrunner.

You should also watch for Emma Stone in Bugonia, her latest collaboration with director Yorgos Lanthimos. In this satirical sci-fi comedy, Stone plays the powerful CEO of a pharmaceutical company who is kidnapped by two conspiracy theorists who believe she is an alien bent on destroying Earth. The role of an ice-cold, potentially extraterrestrial executive gives Stone a platform for another unique and compelling performance. Other names generating discussion include Emily Blunt for her role as Dawn Staples, the wife of Mark Kerr, in The Smashing Machine. Her performance as a woman caught in the chaotic world of professional fighting and addiction is seen as a powerful counterpart to Johnson’s lead.

A Season of Anticipation

As you finalize your own predictions, the landscape for the 2026 SAG Awards is both exciting and wide open. The nominations, announced on January 7, 2026, will provide a clearer picture. Will the actors’ branch favor large, starry ensembles or be swayed by singular, transformative roles? The films and performances discussed above are undeniably at the forefront of the awards conversation. It will be a thrilling journey to see which of these talents ultimately earn the coveted nod from their peers.