Tour de France 2025 Special Bets - Odds and Predictions

Overview

The 2024 Tour de France is brimming with individual brilliance, national pride, and historic narratives—and the special bets market reflects the depth of storylines. From yellow jersey hopefuls to national milestone moments, these props are built for fans seeking drama beyond the general classification.

With key riders like Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, and Primož Roglič in form, there’s no shortage of stage-winning potential or jersey contention. Layer in specific calendar dates like Bastille Day (July 14) and Nelson Mandela Day (July 18), and these bets offer windows into high-emotion opportunities across the Tour.

Key Rider-Based Specials

Tadej Pogačar to Win a Stage / Wear the Yellow Jersey
Pogačar is one of the most versatile threats in the peloton. Backing him to take at least one stage is practically default at this point, and his ability to seize and hold the yellow jersey is a strong probability if he avoids crashes or illness.

Jonas Vingegaard Stage Win & Yellow Jersey Appearance
Despite fitness uncertainties post-injury, Vingegaard is still a prime candidate to both win a stage and hold yellow—if not outright win the GC again. A strong performance in the mountains is expected, which aligns with both props.

Remco Evenepoel & Primož Roglič – Stage Wins & Yellow Ambitions
Remco's stage-hunting ability is undeniable, and if he focuses on individual days rather than GC, he should grab at least one. Roglič, on the other hand, remains unpredictable—capable of brilliance or mishap. His time in yellow may depend more on GC pacing than explosive stage wins.

Juan Ayuso’s Breakout Tour?
The Spanish phenom is due for a Tour de France breakout, and many analysts are circling him for both stage wins and a possible stint in yellow. He’s already shown climbing class and could land a high GC finish.

Matteo Jorgenson’s Time to Shine
One of the most exciting American talents, Jorgenson has the skillset for breakaway success. While a stage win would be a career highlight, his form indicates it’s not far-fetched.

Narrative-Driven Date-Based Props

Will a French Rider Win on Bastille Day (July 14)?
A perennial fan-favorite market. The pressure is always on the French peloton to deliver on their national holiday. While recent years haven’t seen consistent success, French teams almost always load up their breakaways for July 14. Motivation runs high, but competition from stronger international teams is stiff.

Nelson Mandela Day – Can a South African Win on July 18?
This is an emotionally charged bet with slim historical precedent. South African riders have yet to consistently feature in GC or breakaway finishes. A win on Mandela Day would be a stunning underdog story and would instantly go down in Tour folklore.

What These Bets Tell Us About 2024’s Tour

These markets offer more than fun—they showcase where narratives are building. From comeback stories (Roglič, Vingegaard) to rising stars (Ayuso, Jorgenson), and moments of national pride (Bastille Day, Mandela Day), the 2024 edition has the ingredients for both shock and sentiment.

Sources of Information

• ProCyclingStats – Rider profiles and race analytics

• CyclingNews – Team updates and stage previews

• Velo – Deep dives on strategies and form

• [Twitter/X Cycling Analysts] – @ammattipyoraily, @rauleroglic, @cycling_podcast

• [YouTube Channels] – GCN Racing, The Lantern Rouge Cycling Podcast, Cosmo Catalano

Hashtags to Track

#TDF2024
#TourDeFrance
#BastilleDayStage
#YellowJersey
#RemcoEvenepoel
#Ayuso2024
#MandelaDayRide

Conclusion

The Tour de France 2024 is about more than who finishes in yellow on the Champs-Élysées. These special markets tap into fan emotion, rider legacies, and key cultural moments. Whether you're backing a French hero for Bastille Day or betting on the next breakout star like Ayuso or Jorgenson, there’s a narrative to follow each day of the race.