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BEOmod364
StatusOpen
CategorySport
Tracking Started25 Mar 2025
Last Updated23 May 2025 17:53 UTC
BetmodBet Popularity269
| # | Bet options | Chance to win | Change | Odds | Return on 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Projected WinnerUsman Dembele | 44.44% | 2.250 | $225 | ||
| Implied Projected WinnerMateo Retegui | 25% | 4.000 | $400 | ||
| Implied Projected WinnerAlexander Isak | 16.67% | 6.000 | $600 | ||
| Implied Projected WinnerMohamed Salah | 15.38% | 6.500 | $650 | ||
| Implied Projected WinnerKylian Mbappe | 5% | 20.000 | $2000 | ||
| Implied Projected WinnerErling Haaland | 2.78% | 36.000 | $3600 | ||
| Implied Projected WinnerOmar Marmoush | 2.5% | 40.000 | $4000 | ||
| Implied Projected WinnerHarry Kane | 1.67% | 60.000 | $6000 | ||
| Implied Projected WinnerRaphael Dias Belloli | 1% | 100.000 | $10000 | ||
The race to be the top non-penalty goal scorer across the top five European leagues (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1) is one of the purest tests of a striker’s finishing prowess. Without the inflation of penalty kicks, this metric rewards consistent goal-scoring in open play—an essential quality for any elite forward.
For the 2024/25 season, a mix of established names and breakout talents are in the running. From Erling Haaland’s physical dominance to Kylian Mbappé’s pace and finishing, to young stars like Rasmus Højlund and Victor Boniface, the competition is tight, and goal conversion efficiency will be key.
Erling Haaland (Manchester City)
The frontrunner. Even without penalties, Haaland racks up goals through sheer volume and City’s creative midfield.
Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)
Now in La Liga, Mbappé will be part of a fluid front line and should generate a high number of open-play chances.
Victor Osimhen (Napoli)
A true penalty-box striker with strong aerial presence and instinctive positioning.
Harry Kane (Bayern Munich)
Even when you remove penalties, Kane remains elite in his movement and link-up play in the Bundesliga.
Alexander Isak (Newcastle United)
Emerging as a top-tier finisher with smart movement and flair.
Victor Boniface (Bayer Leverkusen)
Had one of Europe’s best non-penalty goals per 90 rates in 2023/24. An analytics darling and a sleeper pick.
Lautaro Martínez (Inter Milan)
Known for his work-rate and non-stop pressing, he finds goals in open play consistently in Serie A.
Non-penalty goals (NPG) provide a better measure of scoring ability than total goals, which often include penalties that don’t necessarily reflect a player’s shot-creating ability or involvement in open play.
NPG/90: Key metric to track throughout the season
xG without penalties: Advanced metric to assess expected goals from open play
Shot quality: Look for strikers who consistently take high-percentage shots inside the box
Players in teams that dominate possession and create high shot volumes naturally benefit in NPG races. Haaland and Mbappé are strong due to both their efficiency and the systems they play in. However, Bundesliga and Serie A offer dark horses like Boniface and Martínez who thrive in more direct, fast-paced environments.
Injuries, tactical shifts, and transfers during the January window will also play a role—especially with Euro 2024 fatigue impacting player availability in the early part of the season.
FBref – Advanced stats including NPG and xG
WhoScored – Player ratings and performance breakdowns
Transfermarkt – Match-by-match goals and assist logs
Opta Analyst – Deep analytics for open-play scoring
Sofascore – Real-time stats and heat maps
#NPGRace#GoldenBootRace#NoPenGoals#Top5Leagues#FootballAnalytics#EuropeanGoldenBoot
X (Twitter): @OptaJoe, @StatmanDave, @ESPNFC, @Squawka
Podcasts: The Athletic Football Show, Tifo Football, Football Daily
YouTube: Tifo IRL, Statman Dave, Euro Football Daily
Communities: r/soccer, r/football
Winning the non-penalty top scorer title in Europe’s elite leagues is about more than numbers—it's about instinct, positioning, and consistency in open play. While big names like Haaland and Mbappé remain strong favorites, sharp-eyed fans and bettors should watch for tactical shifts, injuries, and breakout campaigns from emerging talents. This category rewards pure finishers—and always provides surprises.
This projection chart for BetMod 364 shows the Top 5 wagering options for "Sport" at 2025-06-18 15:21:47. The current order displaying on the Chart above is "Usman Dembele" as the projected winner, "Mateo Retegui" is in second place, "Alexander Isak" is in 3rd place right now, "Mohamed Salah" is showing up at 4th from the top, "Kylian Mbappe" is showing up at 5th from the top.
