Tony Awards 2025: Betting Guide for Best Musical & Play Categories

The 2024-2025 Broadway season has been a vibrant one, with a remarkable 43 productions debuting, setting the stage for a highly competitive 78th Annual Tony Awards. For those looking to place a friendly wager on the prestigious Best Musical and Best Play categories, here’s a guide to the nominees and their prospects.

The Tony Awards Eligibility and Nomination Overview

This season saw 14 new musicals and 14 new plays vying for top honours. The Tony Awards Administration Committee met multiple times to determine eligibility for various productions and categories.

Best Musical: A Crowded Field

The Best Musical category features five nominees, a common occurrence when there are at least nine eligible candidates. This year, Death Becomes Her, Buena Vista Social Club, and Maybe Happy Ending lead the overall nomination count with ten nods each.

Here are the nominees for Best Musical:

• Buena Vista Social Club: Inspired by the true story of the Grammy-winning Cuban musical ensemble, this show has been praised for its vibrant energy and life-affirming story. It secured 10 Tony nominations.
• Dead Outlaw: This musical garnered significant buzz and accolades Off-Broadway before transferring to Broadway. It received seven nominations. Many prognosticators see it as a strong contender.
• Death Becomes Her: An adaptation of the cult classic film, this musical comedy has proven to be a sensation, demonstrating that screen-to-stage adaptations can indeed shine. It also boasts 10 nominations. Some see it as a traditional, splashy musical comedy that could appeal to voters.
• Maybe Happy Ending: This heartwarming musical about helper-bots has clearly resonated, tying for the highest number of nominations with 10. It’s considered a strong contender, potentially having the “heart” that voters connect with.
• Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical: This British import, an Olivier Award-winning musical based on a World War II deception operation, has successfully crossed the pond. It is also among the top nominees.

Betting Considerations for Best Musical:

• High Nomination Count: Buena Vista Social Club, Death Becomes Her, and Maybe Happy Ending lead with 10 nominations each, often a strong indicator of broad support.
• Critical Buzz and Previous Acclaim: Dead Outlaw arrived with significant Off-Broadway success. Operation Mincemeat brings Olivier Award-winning prestige.
• Audience Appeal vs. Critical Darlings: While some shows are critical hits, others, like Death Becomes Her, might have strong audience appeal that translates into votes. Maybe Happy Ending is noted for its emotional connection.
• Originality and Innovation: Voters may lean towards fresh, original stories or innovative takes on existing material.

Early Predictions and Frontrunners (Best Musical):

Based on nomination counts and early buzz, Maybe Happy Ending, Death Becomes Her, and Dead Outlaw appear to be strong frontrunners. Buena Vista Social Club’s impressive nomination tally also makes it a serious contender. Operation Mincemeat’s success in the UK could also give it an edge.

Best Play: A Diverse Slate

The Best Play category also features five compelling and diverse works:

• English: Sanaz Toossi’s Pulitzer Prize-winning play, set in an Iranian classroom where adults learn English, explores the limits of language. It is among the nominees for Best Play.
• The Hills of California: Jez Butterworth’s latest play is another strong contender in this category. It received seven nominations overall.
• John Proctor Is the Villain: Kimberly Belflower’s play has garnered significant acclaim and is considered a leading candidate by many. It also received seven nominations. Some predict it could win due to its expert blend of comedy and drama.
• Oh, Mary!: This absurdist play by Cole Escola, who also stars, has been a much-talked-about show of the season and is a strong contender. It opened early in the eligibility window, last July.
• Purpose: Branden Jacobs-Jenkins’ spirited and intriguing family drama, directed by Phylicia Rashad, rounds out the nominees.

Betting Considerations for Best Play:

• Critical Acclaim and Awards: English comes with a Pulitzer Prize, a significant endorsement.
• Strong Narrative and Thematic Resonance: Plays that tackle compelling contemporary issues or offer profound human insights often fare well. John Proctor Is the Villain is noted for leaving audiences on a high.
• Unique Theatrical Experiences: Oh, Mary! with its absurdist approach and star power from writer/performer Cole Escola, offers a distinctive choice.
• Overall Production Strength: Plays with multiple nominations across various categories, like The Hills of California and John Proctor Is the Villain (both with seven nods), indicate broad support within the industry.

Early Predictions and Frontrunners (Best Play):

John Proctor Is the Villain and Oh, Mary! are frequently cited as leading contenders. The Pulitzer Prize for English makes it a formidable nominee as well. The Hills of California and Purpose are also highly acclaimed and could certainly be in the running.

The 2025 Tony Awards promise an exciting night celebrating a rich Broadway season. For those looking to make informed bets, considering the nomination counts, critical reception, unique strengths of each nominee, and the overall buzz will be key. Both the Best Musical and Best Play categories are filled with deserving productions, making for a suspenseful lead-up to Broadway’s biggest night.